Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #28,095 of 84,120 nationally
South Park Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dayton
Tract 39113003404 · Montgomery County, OH · pop 2,218 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Census tract 39113003404 covers part of the South Park Historic District area of Dayton, OH, and scores 5.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. 30% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly below the Montgomery County average of 42.9%.
Risk score
5.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14%
Stable renters 34%
Owners 52%
Tract context
Occupied units924
Renter share48.1%
SVI overall0.56
Poverty rate26.1%
Median income$59,895
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
26
th percentile
Low
Within county
70
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
75
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dayton and the region
Centroid at 39.7427, -84.1891 · click any tract to drill in
Why South Park Historic District scores 5.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dayton
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
26.1% poverty · this tract
6.5
Supply constraint
$957 rent vs county FMR
3.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dayton
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dayton
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dayton
3.5
How South Park Historic District compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 56
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 80%Socioeconomic
- 22%Household composition
- 29%Racial/ethnic minority
- 48%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 19%Grade C
- 24%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 852Total filings over 17 yrs
- 5.84%Avg annual filing rate
- 5.5%Peak (2005)
- 38Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 39% over the past 17 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within South Park Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.4%Housing insecurity
- 10.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.0%Food insecurity
- 14.5%SNAP enrollment
- 9.4%Transit barriers
- 8.5%No health insurance
- 19.7%Frequent mental distress
- 28.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in South Park Historic District
Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10. The poverty rate is 26%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 7.7/10.
The severe-burden share is 14%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Running cool, state political climate reads 2.4/10. Against the Montgomery County average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.1 points.
Court records carry 852 eviction filings across 17 observed years. The worst year on record was 2005, when 5.5% of renter households were served.
This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Dayton. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 5.8% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 67% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Social vulnerability reads 6.1/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the OH average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.1 points hotter.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 39113003404
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39113003404?
Census tract 39113003404 in the South Park Historic District neighborhood scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39113003404?
Median gross rent is $957/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39113003404?
26.1% of residents in tract 39113003404 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,218.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39113003404?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 56th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 80th, household 22th, minority 29th, housing 48th.
Q5
Is tract 39113003404 considered part of South Park Historic District?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39113003404 fall within South Park Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39113003404?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 852 eviction filings across 17 validated years in tract 39113003404 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.84% of renter households, peaking at 5.5% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39113003404 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39113003404 compare to Dayton overall?
Tract 39113003404 scores 5.3/10, higher than the parent city of Dayton at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dayton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39113003404 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 24% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dayton
Top eight tracts in Dayton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OH
39113002800
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
39113070202
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
39113001100
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Eagle Ridge
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
McPherson Town Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Kossuth Colony Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Walnut Hills
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
39113080700
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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