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Neighborhood · Ranked #24,926 of 84,120 nationally

South Park Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dayton

Tract 39113003404 · Montgomery County, OH · pop 2,218 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

Census tract 39113003404 sits in South Park Historic District in Dayton eviction risk, Ohio eviction laws, and carries an eviction-risk score of 5.1/10. That is riskier than roughly 41% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 30% of renter households, a moderate level, and 14% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $957 a month while the average household earns $59,895 a year, roughly 19% of income at the averages. Renters make up 48% of occupied homes.

Risk score
5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14% Stable renters 34% Owners 52%
Tract context
Occupied units924
Renter share48.1%
SVI overall0.56
Poverty rate26.1%
Median income$59,895

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In South Park Historic District
Very Low
Within parent city
28 th percentile
Rank, 28th percentileLowHigh
#37 of 51 tracts In Dayton
Low
Within county
74 th percentile
Rank, 74th percentileLowHigh
#42 of 156 tracts In Montgomery County
Elevated
Within state
79 th percentile
Rank, 79th percentileLowHigh
#667 of 3,162 tracts In Ohio
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Dayton and the region

Centroid at 39.7427, -84.1891 · click any tract to drill in

Why South Park Historic District scores 5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Dayton
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
26.1% poverty · this tract
6.5
Supply constraint
$957 rent vs county FMR
3.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dayton
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dayton
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dayton
3.5

How South Park Historic District compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
South Park Historic District risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.05.0This tracttract 003404Dayton: 3.43.4Daytonparent cityCounty: 3.83.8Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.73.7Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 56

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 852Total filings over 17 yrs
  • 5.84%Avg annual filing rate
  • 5.5%Peak (2005)
  • 38Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2002 to 2018
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 391130034042002: 62 filings (4.69/100 renter HHs)2003: 74 filings (5.59/100 renter HHs)2004: 60 filings (4.53/100 renter HHs)2005: 79 filings (5.51/100 renter HHs)2006: 55 filings (3.83/100 renter HHs)2007: 62 filings (4.32/100 renter HHs)2008: 48 filings (3.35/100 renter HHs)2009: 49 filings (3.42/100 renter HHs)2010: 36 filings (5.69/100 renter HHs)2011: 41 filings (7.19/100 renter HHs)2012: 40 filings (7.02/100 renter HHs)2013: 51 filings (8.95/100 renter HHs)2014: 46 filings (8.07/100 renter HHs)2015: 42 filings (7.37/100 renter HHs)2016: 44 filings (8.09/100 renter HHs)2017: 25 filings (4.60/100 renter HHs)2018: 38 filings (6.99/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 39% over the past 17 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within South Park Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in South Park Historic District

The score leans hardest on economic stress at 6.5/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dayton eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Montgomery County average of 5.4 and in line with the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 56th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 13.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 10.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 39113003404

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39113003404?

Census tract 39113003404 in the South Park Historic District neighborhood scores 5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 39113003404?

Median gross rent is $957/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 39113003404?

26.1% of residents in tract 39113003404 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,218.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 39113003404?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 56th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 80th, household 22th, minority 29th, housing 48th.
Q5

Is tract 39113003404 considered part of South Park Historic District?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39113003404 fall within South Park Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39113003404?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 852 eviction filings across 17 validated years in tract 39113003404 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.84% of renter households, peaking at 5.5% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 39113003404 struggle to pay rent?

About 13.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 39113003404 compare to Dayton overall?

Tract 39113003404 scores 5/10, higher than the parent city of Dayton at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dayton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 39113003404 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 24% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dayton

Top eight tracts in Dayton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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