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Neighborhood · Ranked #34,332 of 84,120 nationally

Walnut Hills Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dayton

Tract 39113003403 · Montgomery County, OH · pop 3,558 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

Tract 39113003403 covers the Walnut Hills neighborhood of Dayton in Ohio. Home to 3,558 residents, it scores 6.1/10 on landlord eviction risk. On the national scale it ranks #19,410 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

About 55% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 9% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,053 monthly, set against $111,875 in average yearly household income, roughly 11% of income at the averages. Renters make up 45% of occupied homes.

Risk score
4.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24% Stable renters 20% Owners 56%
Tract context
Occupied units74
Renter share44.6%
SVI overall0.18
Poverty rate38.4%
Median income$111,875

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
40 th percentile
Rank, 40th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 6 tracts In Walnut Hills
Moderate
Within parent city
8 th percentile
Rank, 8th percentileLowHigh
#47 of 51 tracts In Dayton
Very Low
Within county
61 th percentile
Rank, 61st percentileLowHigh
#62 of 156 tracts In Montgomery County
Elevated
Within state
68 th percentile
Rank, 68th percentileLowHigh
#1,022 of 3,162 tracts In Ohio
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Dayton and the region

Centroid at 39.7370, -84.1706 · click any tract to drill in

Why Walnut Hills scores 4.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Dayton
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
38.4% poverty · this tract
9.6
Supply constraint
$1,053 rent vs county FMR
4.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dayton
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dayton
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dayton
3.5

How Walnut Hills compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Walnut Hills risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.44.4This tracttract 003403Dayton: 3.43.4Daytonparent cityCounty: 3.83.8Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.73.7Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 18

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 43Total filings over 15 yrs
  • 7.13%Avg annual filing rate
  • 18.3%Peak (2007)
  • 1Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2002 to 2018
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 391130034032002: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)2003: 2 filings (5.59/100 renter HHs)2004: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)2005: 1 filings (3.05/100 renter HHs)2006: 3 filings (9.15/100 renter HHs)2007: 6 filings (18.31/100 renter HHs)2008: 4 filings (12.21/100 renter HHs)2009: 4 filings (12.21/100 renter HHs)2010: 4 filings (4.71/100 renter HHs)2011: 3 filings (6.52/100 renter HHs)2012: 4 filings (8.70/100 renter HHs)2013: 5 filings (10.87/100 renter HHs)2014: 3 filings (6.52/100 renter HHs)2015: 1 filings (2.17/100 renter HHs)2016: 1 filings (2.33/100 renter HHs)2017: 1 filings (2.33/100 renter HHs)2018: 1 filings (2.33/100 renter HHs)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Walnut Hills. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Walnut Hills

The score leans hardest on economic stress at 9.6/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dayton eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Montgomery County average of 5.4 and above the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 18th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

In CDC survey modeling, about 13.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 9.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 39113003403

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39113003403?

Census tract 39113003403 in the Walnut Hills neighborhood scores 4.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 39113003403?

Median gross rent is $1,053/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 39113003403?

38.4% of residents in tract 39113003403 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,558.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 39113003403?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 18th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 67th, household 0th, minority 28th, housing 45th.
Q5

Is tract 39113003403 considered part of Walnut Hills?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39113003403 fall within Walnut Hills (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39113003403?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 43 eviction filings across 15 validated years in tract 39113003403 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.13% of renter households, peaking at 18.3% in 2007. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 39113003403 struggle to pay rent?

About 13.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 39113003403 compare to Dayton overall?

Tract 39113003403 scores 4.4/10, higher than the parent city of Dayton at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dayton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 39113003403 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dayton

Top eight tracts in Dayton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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