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Neighborhood · Ranked #28,017 of 84,120 nationally

McPherson Town Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dayton

Tract 39113165200 · Montgomery County, OH · pop 1,616 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

With a score of 5.1/10, tract 39113165200 in the McPherson Town Historic District neighborhood of Dayton ranks in the Moderate tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 1,616 residents. It lands near the 41st percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

45% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 19% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $685 a month against an average household income of $33,050 a year, roughly 25% of income at the averages. About 76% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
4.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 35% Stable renters 42% Owners 23%
Tract context
Occupied units1,054
Renter share76.5%
SVI overall0.53
Poverty rate16.1%
Median income$33,050

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In McPherson Town Historic District
Very Low
Within parent city
18 th percentile
Rank, 18th percentileLowHigh
#42 of 51 tracts In Dayton
Very Low
Within county
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#53 of 156 tracts In Montgomery County
Elevated
Within state
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#783 of 3,162 tracts In Ohio
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Dayton and the region

Centroid at 39.7680, -84.1970 · click any tract to drill in

Why McPherson Town Historic District scores 4.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Dayton
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
16.1% poverty · this tract
4.0
Supply constraint
$685 rent vs county FMR
1.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dayton
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dayton
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dayton
3.5

How McPherson Town Historic District compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
McPherson Town Historic District risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.84.8This tracttract 165200Dayton: 3.43.4Daytonparent cityCounty: 3.83.8Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.73.7Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 53

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,374Total filings over 17 yrs
  • 7.82%Avg annual filing rate
  • 9.7%Peak (2008)
  • 63Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2002 to 2018
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 391131652002002: 96 filings (8.72/100 renter HHs)2003: 102 filings (9.26/100 renter HHs)2004: 101 filings (9.17/100 renter HHs)2005: 101 filings (8.43/100 renter HHs)2006: 64 filings (5.34/100 renter HHs)2007: 77 filings (6.43/100 renter HHs)2008: 116 filings (9.68/100 renter HHs)2009: 77 filings (6.43/100 renter HHs)2010: 90 filings (8.83/100 renter HHs)2011: 89 filings (9.96/100 renter HHs)2012: 68 filings (7.61/100 renter HHs)2013: 63 filings (7.05/100 renter HHs)2014: 88 filings (9.84/100 renter HHs)2015: 48 filings (5.37/100 renter HHs)2016: 60 filings (6.41/100 renter HHs)2017: 71 filings (7.59/100 renter HHs)2018: 63 filings (6.73/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 34% over the past 17 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within McPherson Town Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in McPherson Town Historic District

The heaviest input here is economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dayton eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Montgomery County average of 5.4 and in line with the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 53rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

This tract overlaps land the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation redlined in the 1930s, a dominant grade of D ("Hazardous") across 34% of the tract. Redlining cut off mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class blocks, and those areas still tend to carry higher rent burden and eviction filings today.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 39113165200

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39113165200?

Census tract 39113165200 in the McPherson Town Historic District neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 39113165200?

Median gross rent is $685/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 39113165200?

16.1% of residents in tract 39113165200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,616.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 39113165200?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 53th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 60th, household 13th, minority 62th, housing 66th.
Q5

Is tract 39113165200 considered part of McPherson Town Historic District?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39113165200 fall within McPherson Town Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39113165200?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,374 eviction filings across 17 validated years in tract 39113165200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.82% of renter households, peaking at 9.7% in 2008. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 39113165200 struggle to pay rent?

About 13.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 39113165200 compare to Dayton overall?

Tract 39113165200 scores 4.8/10, higher than the parent city of Dayton at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dayton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 39113165200 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 34% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dayton

Top eight tracts in Dayton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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