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Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally

McPherson Town Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dayton

Tract 39113001200 · Montgomery County, OH · pop 1,188 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

Tract 39113001200 sits in the McPherson Town Historic District area of Dayton eviction risk, OH, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.4/10. Population here is 1,188. The severe-burden share is 51%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 46% Stable renters 20% Owners 34%
Tract context
Occupied units606
Renter share66.0%
SVI overall0.60
Poverty rate57.2%
Median income$19,182

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In McPherson Town Historic District
Very High
Within parent city
40 th percentile
Rank, 40th percentileLowHigh
#31 of 51 tracts In Dayton
Moderate
Within county
79 th percentile
Rank, 79th percentileLowHigh
#33 of 156 tracts In Montgomery County
High
Within state
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#554 of 3,162 tracts In Ohio
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Dayton and the region

Centroid at 39.7751, -84.1996 · click any tract to drill in

Why McPherson Town Historic District scores 5.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Dayton
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
57.2% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$733 rent vs county FMR
1.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dayton
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dayton
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dayton
3.5

How McPherson Town Historic District compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
McPherson Town Historic District risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.4This tracttract 0012004.0Daytonparent city4.2Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 60

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 658Total filings over 17 yrs
  • 12.19%Avg annual filing rate
  • 11.7%Peak (2004)
  • 23Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2002 to 2018
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 39113001200
Filings dropped 51% over the past 17 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within McPherson Town Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in McPherson Town Historic District

Cost burden runs around two-thirds here against 42.9% across Montgomery County. The dominant input is economic stress at 10/10.

SNAP participation runs 55.2% against 15.2% nationally. The poverty rate is 57%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

Set annual rent against average income of $19,182 and the ratio lands at 46%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.

Disability prevalence runs 47.5% against 31.5% nationally. 66% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.8/10. Average gross rent is $733, 20% below the Dayton average.

It sits 1.2 points above the Montgomery County average of 4.2. Court records carry 658 eviction filings across 17 observed years. Filings peaked in 2004 at 11.7% of renter households.

This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Dayton. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 39113001200

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39113001200?

Census tract 39113001200 in the McPherson Town Historic District neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 39113001200?

Median gross rent is $733/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 70% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 39113001200?

57.2% of residents in tract 39113001200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,188.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 39113001200?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 60th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 75th, household 44th, minority 79th, housing 29th.
Q5

Is tract 39113001200 considered part of McPherson Town Historic District?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39113001200 fall within McPherson Town Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39113001200?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 658 eviction filings across 17 validated years in tract 39113001200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 12.19% of renter households, peaking at 11.7% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 39113001200 struggle to pay rent?

About 36.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 32.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 39113001200 compare to Dayton overall?

Tract 39113001200 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Dayton at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dayton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 39113001200 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 30% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dayton

Top eight tracts in Dayton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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