Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Census Tract · Ranked #28,095 of 84,120 nationally
Cottage Grove Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 41039001201 · Lane County, OR · pop 4,245 · 53% of tract blocks fall in Cottage Grove
Tract 41039001201 sits in Cottage Grove eviction risk, OR, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.3/10. It is home to 4,245 residents. Against Lane County at 46.2%, 33% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
5.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6%
Stable renters 12%
Owners 82%
Tract context
Occupied units1,654
Renter share17.6%
SVI overall0.72
Poverty rate8.5%
Median income$80,000
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
21
th percentile
Low
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
National
67
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Cottage Grove and the region
Centroid at 43.8591, -123.0906 · click any tract to drill in
Why Cottage Grove scores 5.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Cottage Grove
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.2
State political climate
Oregon legislature & governorship
7.2
Economic stress
8.5% poverty · this tract
2.1
Supply constraint
$1,032 rent vs county FMR
1.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Cottage Grove
5.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Cottage Grove
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Cottage Grove
6.0
How Cottage Grove compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 72
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 63%Socioeconomic
- 77%Household composition
- 26%Racial/ethnic minority
- 80%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 417Total filings over 16 yrs
- 5.84%Avg annual filing rate
- 11.2%Peak (2016)
- 38Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 19% over the past 16 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 80Total filings 2020-21
- 1.0Avg monthly (observed)
- 2.3Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.44×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Eugene, OR as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Cottage Grove
The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 8.5/10. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1.9/10. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 2.1/10.
The severe-burden share is 14%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. At $1,032 a month, rents run 18% under what the rest of Cottage Grove commands. Against the Lane County average of 6.2, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.9 points.
Court records carry 417 eviction filings across 16 observed years. The worst year on record was 2016, when 11.2% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 5.8% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 67% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 18% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.5/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 41039001201
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 41039001201?
Census tract 41039001201 in Cottage Grove scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 41039001201?
Median gross rent is $1,032/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 33% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 41039001201?
8.5% of residents in tract 41039001201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,245.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 41039001201?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 72th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 63th, household 77th, minority 26th, housing 80th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 41039001201?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 417 eviction filings across 16 validated years in tract 41039001201 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.84% of renter households, peaking at 11.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
Did eviction filings in tract 41039001201 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.44× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Eugene eviction risk, OR), 2020-2021.
Q7
How does tract 41039001201 compare to Cottage Grove overall?
Tract 41039001201 scores 5.3/10, lower than the parent city of Cottage Grove at 6.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Cottage Grove eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Cottage Grove
Top eight tracts in Cottage Grove ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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