University District Eviction Risk: High , Portland

The dominant input is local political climate at 9/10. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 9/10.

77% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Annualized rent equals 33% of average household income of $48,412, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. The poverty rate is 29%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

It sits 1.7 points above the Multnomah County average of 7.4. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.5/10. 59% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Multnomah County average of 49.7%.

At $1,344 a month, rents run 19% under what the rest of Portland commands. The filing record is not thin: 1,089 evictions over 16 years of observation.

Filings peaked in 2002 at 10.3% of renter households. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Portland. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.