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Neighborhood · Ranked #15,522 of 84,120 nationally

Bells Bay Eviction Risk: Moderate , Conway

Tract 45051070400 · Horry County, SC · pop 6,748 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

How risky is Bells Bay in Conway for landlords? Census tract 45051070400 scores 6.4/10, the Elevated tier. It lands near the 84th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 50% of renter households, a severe level, and 27% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $740 monthly, set against $35,430 in average yearly household income, roughly 25% of income at the averages. About 32% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16% Stable renters 16% Owners 68%
Tract context
Occupied units2,576
Renter share31.5%
SVI overall0.87
Poverty rate27.7%
Median income$35,430

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Bells Bay
Moderate
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 9 tracts In Conway
Very High
Within county
99 th percentile
Rank, 99th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 77 tracts In Horry County
Very High
Within state
90 th percentile
Rank, 90th percentileLowHigh
#131 of 1,317 tracts In South Carolina
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Conway and the region

Centroid at 33.8403, -79.0953 · click any tract to drill in

Why Bells Bay scores 5.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Conway
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.3
State political climate
South Carolina legislature & governorship
2.1
Economic stress
27.7% poverty · this tract
6.9
Supply constraint
$740 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Conway
6.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Conway
7.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Conway
7.1

How Bells Bay compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Bells Bay risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.75.7This tracttract 070400Conway: 2.82.8Conwayparent cityCounty: 3.73.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.04.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 87

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 964Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 19.98%Avg annual filing rate
  • 23.1%Peak (2013)
  • 220Filings in 2014 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2010 to 2014
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 450510704002010: 146 filings (17.46/100 renter HHs)2011: 172 filings (17.34/100 renter HHs)2012: 197 filings (19.86/100 renter HHs)2013: 229 filings (23.08/100 renter HHs)2014: 220 filings (22.18/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 51% over the past 5 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Bells Bay

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 7.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Conway eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Horry County average of 5.3 and above the South Carolina statewide average of 5.5. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 19.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 14.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 87th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 45051070400

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 45051070400?

Census tract 45051070400 in the Bells Bay neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 45051070400?

Median gross rent is $740/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 45051070400?

27.7% of residents in tract 45051070400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,748.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 45051070400?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 78th, household 90th, minority 64th, housing 80th.
Q5

Is tract 45051070400 considered part of Bells Bay?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 45051070400 fall within Bells Bay (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 45051070400?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 964 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 45051070400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 19.98% of renter households, peaking at 23.1% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 45051070400 struggle to pay rent?

About 19.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 45051070400 compare to Conway overall?

Tract 45051070400 scores 5.7/10, higher than the parent city of Conway at 2.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Conway eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Conway

Top eight tracts in Conway ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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