The Gulch Eviction Risk: Moderate , Nashville

Cost burden runs 59% here against 46.0% across Davidson County. This is renter territory: 89% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.

The severe-burden share is 27%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Set annual rent against average income of $70,291 and the ratio lands at 38%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.

Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1.7/10. On the softer side, state political climate reads 1.9/10.

The voucher gap is 20.6%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. The poverty rate is 22%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.3/10. Against the Davidson County average of 3.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.0 points. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

On the national scale it lands near the 59th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3.8/10.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.