Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Census Tract · Ranked #48,956 of 84,120 nationally
Celina Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 48121020129 · Denton, TX · pop 4,718 · 31% of tract blocks fall in Celina
Tract 48121020129 sits in Celina, TX, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4/10. It is home to 4,718 residents. 27% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly below the Denton County average of 45.5%.
Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 3%
Stable renters 7%
Owners 90%
Tract context
Occupied units1,615
Renter share9.5%
SVI overall0.44
Poverty rate14.9%
Median income$112,171
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
66
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
61
th percentile
Elevated
National
42
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Celina and the region
Centroid at 33.3335, -96.8956 · click any tract to drill in
Why Celina scores 4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Celina
5.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.6
State political climate
Texas legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
14.9% poverty · this tract
3.7
Supply constraint
$1,950 rent vs county FMR
5.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Celina
7.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Celina
2.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Celina
5.7
How Celina compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 44
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 55%Socioeconomic
- 89%Household composition
- 50%Racial/ethnic minority
- 7%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 89Total filings 2020-21
- 1.2Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.4Pre-pandemic baseline
- 2.83×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran above baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Fort Worth, TX as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Celina
27% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. The clearest offset is eviction-process difficulty at 1.2/10. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 1.5/10.
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.3/10. At $1,950 a month, rents run 18% under what the rest of Celina commands.
That is riskier than roughly 42% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 10% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
Social vulnerability reads 5/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.
It tracks the Denton County average of 3.8 closely. Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $112,171.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 48121020129
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 48121020129?
Census tract 48121020129 in Celina scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 48121020129?
Median gross rent is $1,950/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 27% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 48121020129?
14.9% of residents in tract 48121020129 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,718.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 48121020129?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 44th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 55th, household 89th, minority 50th, housing 7th.
Q5
Did eviction filings in tract 48121020129 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 2.83× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran above pre-pandemic norms. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Fort Worth eviction risk, TX), 2020-2021.
Q6
How does tract 48121020129 compare to Celina overall?
Tract 48121020129 scores 4/10, higher than the parent city of Celina at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Celina; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Celina
Top eight tracts in Celina ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related