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Neighborhood · Ranked #44,543 of 84,120 nationally

Worthington Farms Eviction Risk: Lower , Manchester

Tract 51041100210 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 2,007 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

For landlords sizing up the Worthington Farms area of Manchester, census tract 51041100210 carries an elevated eviction-risk score of 6.5/10. It lands near the 86th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

About 35% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a high level, and 16% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,618 a month while the average household earns $79,079 a year, roughly 25% of income at the averages. About 62% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
3.8
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 22% Stable renters 40% Owners 38%
Tract context
Occupied units886
Renter share62.1%
SVI overall0.65
Poverty rate14.9%
Median income$79,079

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Worthington Farms
Moderate
Within parent city
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 4 tracts In Manchester
Elevated
Within county
89 th percentile
Rank, 89th percentileLowHigh
#9 of 75 tracts In Chesterfield County
High
Within state
70 th percentile
Rank, 70th percentileLowHigh
#665 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Manchester and the region

Centroid at 37.4883, -77.5263 · click any tract to drill in

Why Worthington Farms scores 3.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Manchester
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
14.9% poverty · this tract
3.7
Supply constraint
$1,618 rent vs county FMR
4.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Manchester
8.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Manchester
8.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Manchester
7.4

How Worthington Farms compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Worthington Farms risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.83.8This tracttract 100210Manchester: 3.93.9Manchesterparent cityCounty: 2.42.4Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 65

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,131Total filings over 7 yrs
  • 62.93%Avg annual filing rate
  • 99.6%Peak (2010)
  • 140Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2010 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510411002102010: 243 filings (99.59/100 renter HHs)2011: 166 filings (68.03/100 renter HHs)2012: 171 filings (70.08/100 renter HHs)2013: 155 filings (63.52/100 renter HHs)2014: 151 filings (61.89/100 renter HHs)2015: 105 filings (43.03/100 renter HHs)2016: 140 filings (34.40/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 42% over the past 7 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Worthington Farms

The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 8.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Manchester, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Chesterfield County average of 5.8 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 16.0% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 10.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is Black and White and ranks around the 65th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51041100210

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100210?

Census tract 51041100210 in the Worthington Farms neighborhood scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51041100210?

Median gross rent is $1,618/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100210?

14.9% of residents in tract 51041100210 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,007.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100210?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 65th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 70th, household 52th, minority 68th, housing 49th.
Q5

Is tract 51041100210 considered part of Worthington Farms?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100210 fall within Worthington Farms (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100210?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,131 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100210 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 62.93% of renter households, peaking at 99.6% in 2010. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51041100210 struggle to pay rent?

About 16.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51041100210 compare to Manchester overall?

Tract 51041100210 scores 3.8/10, right in line with the parent city of Manchester at 3.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Manchester; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Manchester

Top eight tracts in Manchester ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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