Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #22,681 of 84,120 nationally
Worthington Farms Eviction Risk: Moderate , Manchester
Tract 51041100210 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 2,007 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
With a score of 5.6/10, tract 51041100210 in the Worthington Farms area of Manchester, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,007 residents. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.6/10.
Risk score
5.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 22%
Stable renters 40%
Owners 38%
Tract context
Occupied units886
Renter share62.1%
SVI overall0.65
Poverty rate14.9%
Median income$79,079
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
92
th percentile
Very High
Within state
90
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Manchester and the region
Centroid at 37.4883, -77.5263 · click any tract to drill in
Why Worthington Farms scores 5.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Manchester
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
14.9% poverty · this tract
3.7
Supply constraint
$1,618 rent vs county FMR
4.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Manchester
8.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Manchester
8.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Manchester
7.4
How Worthington Farms compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 65
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 70%Socioeconomic
- 52%Household composition
- 68%Racial/ethnic minority
- 49%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,131Total filings over 7 yrs
- 62.93%Avg annual filing rate
- 99.6%Peak (2010)
- 140Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 42% over the past 7 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 16.0%Housing insecurity
- 10.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 17.6%Food insecurity
- 14.2%SNAP enrollment
- 10.0%Transit barriers
- 11.3%No health insurance
- 18.8%Frequent mental distress
- 28.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Worthington Farms
On the high side, local political climate reads 8.6/10. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.4/10. The severe-burden share is 16%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
It sits 1.4 points above the Chesterfield County average of 4.2. Cost burden runs 35% here against 42.3% across Chesterfield County. The filing record is not thin: 1,131 evictions over 7 years of observation.
Filings peaked in 2010 at 99.6% of renter households. In a typical year about 62.9% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #22,681 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.8/10. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51041100210
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100210?
Census tract 51041100210 in the Worthington Farms neighborhood scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51041100210?
Median gross rent is $1,618/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100210?
14.9% of residents in tract 51041100210 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,007.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100210?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 65th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 70th, household 52th, minority 68th, housing 49th.
Q5
Is tract 51041100210 considered part of Worthington Farms?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100210 fall within Worthington Farms (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100210?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,131 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100210 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 62.93% of renter households, peaking at 99.6% in 2010. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51041100210 struggle to pay rent?
About 16.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51041100210 compare to Manchester overall?
Tract 51041100210 scores 5.6/10, higher than the parent city of Manchester at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Manchester; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Manchester
Top eight tracts in Manchester ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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