Neighborhood · Ranked #45,599 of 84,120 nationally

Grove Place Eviction Risk: Moderate , Chester

Tract 51041100409 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 6,989 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi

Census tract 51041100409 runs through the Grove Place area of Chester. With 6,989 residents, it scores 5.3/10 for landlords. It lands near the 48th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

About 28% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a moderate level, and 5% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,619 a month while the average household earns $91,979 a year, roughly 21% of income at the averages. Renters make up 21% of occupied homes.

Risk score

4.4

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 6% Stable renters 15% Owners 79%

Tract context

Occupied units2,912

Renter share21.1%

SVI overall0.33

Poverty rate2.7%

Median income$91,979

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Chester and the region

Centroid at 37.3706, -77.4298 · click any tract to drill in

Why Grove Place scores 4.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Chester

4.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.3

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

2.7% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$1,619 rent vs county FMR

4.5

Rent control risk

Inherited from Chester

6.8

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

2.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Chester

6.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Chester

5.6

How Grove Place compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 33

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

21%Socioeconomic
50%Household composition
53%Racial/ethnic minority
39%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

333Total filings over 7 yrs
12.96%Avg annual filing rate
14.7%Peak (2014)
50Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

Filings by year 2010 to 2016

Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Grove Place. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

9.7%Housing insecurity
6.1%Utility-shutoff threat
10.2%Food insecurity
7.8%SNAP enrollment
6.2%Transit barriers
7.2%No health insurance
16.6%Frequent mental distress
27.4%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Grove Place

The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 6.8/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Chester eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Chesterfield County average of 5.8 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 33rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 333 eviction filings here over 7 tracked years, with about 13.0% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 14.7% of renter households in 2014.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51041100409

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100409?

Census tract 51041100409 in the Grove Place neighborhood scores 4.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51041100409?

Median gross rent is $1,619/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 28% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100409?

2.7% of residents in tract 51041100409 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,989.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100409?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 33th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 21th, household 50th, minority 53th, housing 39th.

Is tract 51041100409 considered part of Grove Place?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100409 fall within Grove Place (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100409?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 333 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100409 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 12.96% of renter households, peaking at 14.7% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51041100409 struggle to pay rent?

About 9.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51041100409 compare to Chester overall?

Tract 51041100409 scores 4.4/10, lower than the parent city of Chester at 5.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chester eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Chester

Top eight tracts in Chester ranked by composite eviction-risk score.