Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #56,048 of 84,120 nationally
Grove Place Eviction Risk: Lower , Chester
Tract 51041100409 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 6,989 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
51041100409 is a census tract in the Grove Place area of Chester, VA. It scores 3.6/10 for landlords. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.6/10.
Risk score
3.6
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6%
Stable renters 15%
Owners 79%
Tract context
Occupied units2,912
Renter share21.1%
SVI overall0.33
Poverty rate2.7%
Median income$91,979
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
41
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
37
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Chester and the region
Centroid at 37.3706, -77.4298 · click any tract to drill in
Why Grove Place scores 3.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Chester
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.7% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,619 rent vs county FMR
4.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chester
6.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chester
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chester
5.6
How Grove Place compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 33
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 21%Socioeconomic
- 50%Household composition
- 53%Racial/ethnic minority
- 39%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 333Total filings over 7 yrs
- 12.96%Avg annual filing rate
- 14.7%Peak (2014)
- 50Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Grove Place. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.7%Housing insecurity
- 6.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.2%Food insecurity
- 7.8%SNAP enrollment
- 6.2%Transit barriers
- 7.2%No health insurance
- 16.6%Frequent mental distress
- 27.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Grove Place
Against Chesterfield County at 42.3%, 28% of renters here are cost-burdened. Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10. On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.5/10.
Court records carry 333 eviction filings across 7 observed years. Food insecurity runs 10.2% against 17.8% nationally. SNAP participation runs 7.8% against 15.2% nationally.
Against the Chesterfield County average of 4.2, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.6 points. The worst year on record was 2014, when 14.7% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 13.0% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 33% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 21% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3.9/10.
Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51041100409
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100409?
Census tract 51041100409 in the Grove Place neighborhood scores 3.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51041100409?
Median gross rent is $1,619/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 28% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100409?
2.7% of residents in tract 51041100409 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,989.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100409?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 33th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 21th, household 50th, minority 53th, housing 39th.
Q5
Is tract 51041100409 considered part of Grove Place?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100409 fall within Grove Place (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100409?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 333 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100409 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 12.96% of renter households, peaking at 14.7% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51041100409 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51041100409 compare to Chester overall?
Tract 51041100409 scores 3.6/10, right in line with the parent city of Chester at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chester eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Chester
Top eight tracts in Chester ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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