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Neighborhood · Ranked #71,178 of 84,120 nationally

Beverly Forest Eviction Risk: Lower , Springfield

Tract 51059421002 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 5,759 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

Here is how census tract 51059421002, in the Beverly Forest neighborhood of Springfield eviction risk, looks to a landlord: a 6.4/10 eviction-risk score (Elevated tier) across a population of 5,759. That is riskier than roughly 84% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

59% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 32% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,291 monthly, set against $110,385 in average yearly household income, roughly 25% of income at the averages. Renters make up 53% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
2.2
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 31% Stable renters 22% Owners 47%
Tract context
Occupied units2,050
Renter share52.5%
SVI overall0.67
Poverty rate12.6%
Median income$110,385

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Beverly Forest
Moderate
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 7 tracts In Springfield
Very High
Within county
89 th percentile
Rank, 89th percentileLowHigh
#32 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
High
Within state
39 th percentile
Rank, 39th percentileLowHigh
#1,336 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Springfield and the region

Centroid at 38.7573, -77.1802 · click any tract to drill in

Why Beverly Forest scores 2.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Springfield
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
12.6% poverty · this tract
3.2
Supply constraint
$2,291 rent vs county FMR
4.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Springfield
9.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Springfield
7.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Springfield
6.7

How Beverly Forest compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Beverly Forest risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 2.22.2This tracttract 421002Springfield: 3.83.8Springfieldparent cityCounty: 1.51.5Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 67

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 416Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 10.15%Avg annual filing rate
  • 12.4%Peak (2012)
  • 78Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594210022011: 113 filings (10.78/100 renter HHs)2012: 130 filings (12.40/100 renter HHs)2013: 95 filings (9.06/100 renter HHs)2016: 78 filings (8.36/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 31% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Beverly Forest

The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Springfield eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is Asian and White and ranks around the 67th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 14.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 9.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059421002

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059421002?

Census tract 51059421002 in the Beverly Forest neighborhood scores 2.2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059421002?

Median gross rent is $2,291/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059421002?

12.6% of residents in tract 51059421002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,759.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059421002?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 67th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 77th, household 25th, minority 79th, housing 59th.
Q5

Is tract 51059421002 considered part of Beverly Forest?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059421002 fall within Beverly Forest (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059421002?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 416 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059421002 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.15% of renter households, peaking at 12.4% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059421002 struggle to pay rent?

About 14.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059421002 compare to Springfield overall?

Tract 51059421002 scores 2.2/10, lower than the parent city of Springfield at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Springfield eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Springfield

Top eight tracts in Springfield ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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