Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Guilford Eviction Risk: Lower , Rose Hill
Tract 51059422301 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,594 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
51059422301 is a census tract in the Guilford area of Rose Hill, VA. It scores 3/10 for landlords. Population here is 2,594. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 18%
Stable renters 27%
Owners 55%
Tract context
Occupied units1,222
Renter share44.9%
SVI overall0.12
Poverty rate2.1%
Median income$168,125
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
2
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
18
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Rose Hill and the region
Centroid at 38.7801, -77.1283 · click any tract to drill in
Why Guilford scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Rose Hill
2.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,956 rent vs county FMR
3.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Rose Hill
2.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Rose Hill
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Rose Hill
3.2
How Guilford compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 12
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 21%Socioeconomic
- 4%Household composition
- 60%Racial/ethnic minority
- 23%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 137Total filings over 4 yrs
- 5.69%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.7%Peak (2016)
- 48Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 50% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Guilford. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.2%Housing insecurity
- 5.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.3%Food insecurity
- 5.5%SNAP enrollment
- 5.1%Transit barriers
- 6.1%No health insurance
- 12.8%Frequent mental distress
- 20.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Guilford
At $1,956 a month, rents run 31% under what the rest of Rose Hill commands. Running cool, local political climate reads 2.4/10. Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.3 points.
On the softer side, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.5/10. SNAP participation runs 5.5% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 8.3% against 17.8% nationally.
Court records carry 137 eviction filings across 4 observed years. Filings peaked in 2016 at 7.7% of renter households. In a typical year about 5.7% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #67,219 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 2.1/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Rent consumes only 14% of average household income of $168,125, an unusually wide affordability cushion.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059422301
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059422301?
Census tract 51059422301 in the Guilford neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059422301?
Median gross rent is $1,956/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059422301?
2.1% of residents in tract 51059422301 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,594.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059422301?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 12th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 21th, household 4th, minority 60th, housing 23th.
Q5
Is tract 51059422301 considered part of Guilford?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059422301 fall within Guilford (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059422301?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 137 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059422301 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.69% of renter households, peaking at 7.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059422301 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059422301 compare to Rose Hill overall?
Tract 51059422301 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Rose Hill at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Rose Hill; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Rose Hill
Top eight tracts in Rose Hill ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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