Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #80,791 of 84,120 nationally
Monticello Forest Eviction Risk: Lower , Springfield
Tract 51059430700 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,631 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
For landlords sizing up the Monticello Forest neighborhood of Springfield, census tract 51059430700 carries a moderate eviction-risk score of 5.8/10. On the national scale it ranks #28,066 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
32% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a high level, and 11% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $3,284 monthly, set against $130,208 in average yearly household income, roughly 30% of income at the averages. Renters make up 18% of occupied homes.
Risk score
1.3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6%
Stable renters 12%
Owners 82%
Tract context
Occupied units957
Renter share17.9%
SVI overall0.31
Poverty rate5.5%
Median income$130,208
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
33
th percentile
Low
Within county
52
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
16
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Springfield and the region
Centroid at 38.7858, -77.2016 · click any tract to drill in
Why Monticello Forest scores 1.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Springfield
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.5% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$3,284 rent vs county FMR
9.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Springfield
9.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Springfield
7.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Springfield
6.7
How Monticello Forest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 31
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 38%Socioeconomic
- 57%Household composition
- 73%Racial/ethnic minority
- 10%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 19Total filings over 4 yrs
- 5.91%Avg annual filing rate
- 8.9%Peak (2011)
- 2Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 71% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Monticello Forest. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.4%Housing insecurity
- 5.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 11.3%Food insecurity
- 6.8%SNAP enrollment
- 5.9%Transit barriers
- 10.0%No health insurance
- 12.5%Frequent mental distress
- 24.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Monticello Forest
The heaviest input here is supply constraint at 9.2/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Springfield eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 19 eviction filings here over 4 tracked years, with about 5.9% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 8.9% of renter households in 2011.
In CDC survey modeling, about 9.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059430700
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059430700?
Census tract 51059430700 in the Monticello Forest neighborhood scores 1.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059430700?
Median gross rent is $3,284/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 32% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059430700?
5.5% of residents in tract 51059430700 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,631.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059430700?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 31th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 38th, household 57th, minority 73th, housing 10th.
Q5
Is tract 51059430700 considered part of Monticello Forest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059430700 fall within Monticello Forest (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059430700?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 19 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059430700 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.91% of renter households, peaking at 8.9% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059430700 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059430700 compare to Springfield overall?
Tract 51059430700 scores 1.3/10, lower than the parent city of Springfield at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Springfield eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Springfield
Top eight tracts in Springfield ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related