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Neighborhood · Springfield, VA

Monticello Forest Eviction Risk: Lower

2 census tracts · pop 9,249 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 1.6/10 · range 1.3–1.7

Monticello Forest is a hispanic-asian neighborhood in Springfield with 2 census tracts and a population of 9,249 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 1.6/10 (Lower tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 52% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 21% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $2,577/month sits 3% lower than the Springfield citywide average ($2,656).

Risk score
1.6
Lower
2 tracts · population-weighted
Monticello Forest vs Springfield How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
52.0% +26%
Springfield: 41.4%
Average gross rent
$2,577 -3%
Springfield: $2,656
Average HH income
$124,926 +1%
Springfield: $123,691
Poverty rate
7.7% -1%
Springfield: 7.8%
Renter share
18.0% -47%
Springfield: 34.0%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Monticello Forest and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 2 tracts span score 1.3–1.7

Why Monticello Forest scores 1.6

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts
3.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 7.1–7.1 across tracts
7.1
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 7.4–7.4 across tracts
7.4
Rent control risk
52% of income on rent · Range 9.0–9.0 across tracts
9.0
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.9–2.9 across tracts
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
18% renter households · Range 7.1–7.1 across tracts
7.1
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 6.7–6.7 across tracts
6.7
Economic stress
7.7% below poverty line · Range 1.4–2.1 across tracts
1.9
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 4.9–9.2 across tracts
6.1
Risk score comparison

Monticello Forest vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Monticello Forest score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Monticello Forest: 1.61.6Monticello ForestNeighborhoodParent city: 3.83.8Parent cityhost cityState: 3.83.8Stateavg in stateU.S.: 4.74.7U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

2 tracts in Monticello Forest

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
51059430600 1.7 6,618 60% $2,296
51059430700 1.3 2,631 32% $3,284
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 60

Pop-weighted across 2 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 57%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 61%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 82%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 48%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Monticello Forest

Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 265Total filings (sum)
  • 8.18%Avg annual filing rate
  • 11.2%Peak year (2016)
  • 8.58%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Monticello Forest

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Monticello Forest

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Monticello Forest?

Monticello Forest scores 1.6/10 (Lower tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Monticello Forest compare to Springfield overall?

Monticello Forest scores 2.2 points lower than Springfield overall (3.8/10). Renters spend 52% of income on rent vs 41% citywide. Average rent: $2,577 vs $2,656.
Q3

What is the average rent in Monticello Forest?

Average gross rent in Monticello Forest is $2,577/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 52% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Monticello Forest residents are renters?

18% of Monticello Forest households are renter-occupied (vs 34% in Springfield). The neighborhood has 9,249 residents.
Q5

Is Monticello Forest a high social-vulnerability area?

Monticello Forest sits in the 60th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Monticello Forest have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Monticello Forest is census tract 51059430600 (score 1.7/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 1.3 to 1.7, a spread of 0.4 points.
Q7

How safe is Monticello Forest for landlords?

Monticello Forest carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (1.6/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Springfield as a whole (3.8/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Monticello Forest?

Monticello Forest has 9,311 residents (Hispanic-Asian Neighborhood). Top groups: Hispanic / Latino (34.1%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (31.1%), White (non-Hispanic) (24%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Monticello Forest

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Springfield

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Monticello Forest.

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