2 census tracts · pop 9,249 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 6/10
· range 5.6–6.1
Monticello Forest is a 2-tract neighborhood of Springfield, VA and houses 9,249 people. That produces an Eviction Risk Score of 6/10, Elevated tier. The strongest single driver of the headline number is rent-regulation exposure at 9/10.
52% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, well above the Springfield rate of 41.4%. 21% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate.
Running cool is economic stress, at 1.9/10. Filings are well documented here: 265 across 2 observed tracts. On the softer side is eviction-process difficulty, at 2.9/10.
The voucher gap is 11.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears. Filing activity peaked in 2016 at 11.2% of renter households. That places it #3 of 5 neighborhoods in Springfield.
Judgments average 2.4% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. At 18% renter-occupied, this is predominantly owner territory, and rental comps have to be drawn from further out.
The closest comparables inside the same city are Fair Vernon and York Manor.
With little internal variation, 6/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
6
Elevated
2 tracts · population-weighted
Monticello Forest vs SpringfieldHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority82%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport48%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Monticello Forest
Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
265Total filings (sum)
8.18%Avg annual filing rate
11.2%Peak year (2016)
8.58%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Monticello Forest
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
12.1%Housing insecurity
6.3%Utility shutoff threat
15.0%Food insecurity
8.8%SNAP enrollment
14.0%No health insurance
25.5%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Monticello Forest
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Monticello Forest?
Monticello Forest scores 6/10 (Elevated tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Monticello Forest compare to Springfield overall?
Monticello Forest scores 0.1 points higher than Springfield overall (5.9/10). Renters spend 52% of income on rent vs 41% citywide. Average rent: $2,577 vs $2,656.
Q3
What is the average rent in Monticello Forest?
Average gross rent in Monticello Forest is $2,577/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 52% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Monticello Forest residents are renters?
18% of Monticello Forest households are renter-occupied (vs 34% in Springfield). The neighborhood has 9,249 residents.
Q5
Is Monticello Forest a high social-vulnerability area?
Monticello Forest sits in the 60th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Monticello Forest have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Monticello Forest is census tract 51059430600 (score 6.1/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 5.6 to 6.1, a spread of 0.5 points.
Q7
How safe is Monticello Forest for landlords?
Monticello Forest carries a elevated-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (6/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Springfield as a whole (5.9/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Monticello Forest?
Monticello Forest has 9,311 residents. Top groups: Hispanic / Latino (34.1%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (31.1%), White (non-Hispanic) (24%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
