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Neighborhood · Ranked #50,654 of 84,120 nationally

Keene Mill Manor Eviction Risk: Lower , West Springfield

Tract 51059430802 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,032 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

51059430802 is a census tract in the Keene Mill Manor area of West Springfield, VA. It scores 3.9/10 for landlords. Population here is 4,032. 42% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
3.9
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11% Stable renters 7% Owners 82%
Tract context
Occupied units1,530
Renter share17.9%
SVI overall0.38
Poverty rate4.7%
Median income$120,870

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Keene Mill Manor
Very High
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 5 tracts In West Springfield
Very High
Within county
53 th percentile
Rank, 53rd percentileLowHigh
#130 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Moderate
Within state
49 th percentile
Rank, 49th percentileLowHigh
#1,111 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across West Springfield and the region

Centroid at 38.7886, -77.2271 · click any tract to drill in

Why Keene Mill Manor scores 3.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from West Springfield
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.7% poverty · this tract
1.2
Supply constraint
$1,756 rent vs county FMR
2.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from West Springfield
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from West Springfield
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from West Springfield
4.5

How Keene Mill Manor compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Keene Mill Manor risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.93.9This tracttract 430802West Springfield: 4.04.0West Springfieldparent cityCounty: 4.34.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 38

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 43Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 2.17%Avg annual filing rate
  • 2.5%Peak (2016)
  • 13Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594308022011: 12 filings (2.47/100 renter HHs)2012: 10 filings (2.06/100 renter HHs)2013: 8 filings (1.65/100 renter HHs)2016: 13 filings (2.49/100 renter HHs)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Keene Mill Manor. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Keene Mill Manor

Cost burden runs 62% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1.2/10.

At $1,756 a month, rents run 28% under what the rest of West Springfield commands. On the high side, local political climate reads 7.4/10. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.6/10.

SNAP participation runs 6.1% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 9.2% against 17.8% nationally.

Court records carry 43 eviction filings across 4 observed years. Filings peaked in 2016 at 2.5% of renter households. In a typical year about 2.2% of renter households face a filing.

On the national scale it lands near the 40th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 18% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Against average income of $120,870, annual rent is just 17%. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059430802

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059430802?

Census tract 51059430802 in the Keene Mill Manor neighborhood scores 3.9/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059430802?

Median gross rent is $1,756/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059430802?

4.7% of residents in tract 51059430802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,032.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059430802?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 38th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 22th, household 54th, minority 68th, housing 44th.
Q5

Is tract 51059430802 considered part of Keene Mill Manor?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059430802 fall within Keene Mill Manor (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059430802?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 43 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059430802 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.17% of renter households, peaking at 2.5% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059430802 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059430802 compare to West Springfield overall?

Tract 51059430802 scores 3.9/10, right in line with the parent city of West Springfield at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from West Springfield eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in West Springfield

Top eight tracts in West Springfield ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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