Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #54,273 of 84,120 nationally
Fairfax Park Eviction Risk: Lower , West Springfield
Tract 51059431400 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,356 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
51059431400 is a census tract in the Fairfax Park area of West Springfield, VA. It scores 3.7/10 for landlords. Population here is 4,356. Cost burden runs 18% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County.
Risk score
3.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2%
Stable renters 7%
Owners 91%
Tract context
Occupied units1,438
Renter share8.5%
SVI overall0.25
Poverty rate5.7%
Median income$157,727
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
75
th percentile
High
Within county
44
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
41
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across West Springfield and the region
Centroid at 38.7681, -77.2299 · click any tract to drill in
Why Fairfax Park scores 3.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from West Springfield
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.7% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$2,841 rent vs county FMR
7.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from West Springfield
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from West Springfield
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from West Springfield
4.5
How Fairfax Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 25
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 34%Socioeconomic
- 42%Household composition
- 69%Racial/ethnic minority
- 9%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 20Total filings over 4 yrs
- 1.41%Avg annual filing rate
- 1.9%Peak (2011)
- 2Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 71% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Fairfax Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.3%Housing insecurity
- 4.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.0%Food insecurity
- 5.1%SNAP enrollment
- 4.8%Transit barriers
- 6.1%No health insurance
- 12.0%Frequent mental distress
- 21.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Fairfax Park
The clearest offset is economic stress at 1.4/10. The voucher gap is 22.8%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
Running hot, local political climate reads 7.4/10. SNAP participation runs 5.1% against 15.2% nationally. The severe-burden share is 11%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Food insecurity runs 8.0% against 17.8% nationally. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.6/10. At $2,841 a month, rents run 16% over what the rest of West Springfield commands.
Court records carry 20 eviction filings across 4 observed years. Filings peaked in 2011 at 1.9% of renter households.
In a typical year about 1.4% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #54,273 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059431400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059431400?
Census tract 51059431400 in the Fairfax Park neighborhood scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059431400?
Median gross rent is $2,841/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 18% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059431400?
5.7% of residents in tract 51059431400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,356.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059431400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 25th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 34th, household 42th, minority 69th, housing 9th.
Q5
Is tract 51059431400 considered part of Fairfax Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059431400 fall within Fairfax Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059431400?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 20 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059431400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.41% of renter households, peaking at 1.9% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059431400 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059431400 compare to West Springfield overall?
Tract 51059431400 scores 3.7/10, lower than the parent city of West Springfield at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from West Springfield eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in West Springfield
Top eight tracts in West Springfield ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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