Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Keene Mill Manor Eviction Risk: Lower , West Springfield
Tract 51059430801 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,406 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Census tract 51059430801 covers part of the Keene Mill Manor area of West Springfield, VA, and scores 3.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,406 residents. Severe burden reaches 39%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4%
Stable renters 4%
Owners 92%
Tract context
Occupied units1,329
Renter share8.0%
SVI overall0.08
Poverty rate1.1%
Median income$174,125
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
17
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across West Springfield and the region
Centroid at 38.7820, -77.2235 · click any tract to drill in
Why Keene Mill Manor scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from West Springfield
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,790 rent vs county FMR
7.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from West Springfield
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from West Springfield
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from West Springfield
4.5
How Keene Mill Manor compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 8
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 2%Socioeconomic
- 61%Household composition
- 63%Racial/ethnic minority
- 4%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 19Total filings over 4 yrs
- 3.81%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.3%Peak (2011)
- 4Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 50% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Keene Mill Manor. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.0%Housing insecurity
- 4.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.8%Food insecurity
- 4.9%SNAP enrollment
- 4.7%Transit barriers
- 6.6%No health insurance
- 12.0%Frequent mental distress
- 22.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Keene Mill Manor
56% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Fairfax County average of 41.0%. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10. The voucher gap is 20.6%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
Running hot, local political climate reads 7.4/10. Food insecurity runs 7.8% against 17.8% nationally.
Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.6/10. Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.9 points. The filing record is not thin: 19 evictions over 4 years of observation.
Average gross rent is $2,790, 14% above the West Springfield average. Housing insecurity runs 7.0% against 14.2% nationally. The worst year on record was 2011, when 7.3% of renter households were served.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059430801
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059430801?
Census tract 51059430801 in the Keene Mill Manor neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059430801?
Median gross rent is $2,790/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059430801?
1.1% of residents in tract 51059430801 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,406.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059430801?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 8th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 2th, household 61th, minority 63th, housing 4th.
Q5
Is tract 51059430801 considered part of Keene Mill Manor?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059430801 fall within Keene Mill Manor (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059430801?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 19 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059430801 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.81% of renter households, peaking at 7.3% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059430801 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059430801 compare to West Springfield overall?
Tract 51059430801 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of West Springfield at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from West Springfield eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in West Springfield
Top eight tracts in West Springfield ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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