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Neighborhood · Ranked #52,479 of 84,120 nationally

Keene Mill Heights Eviction Risk: Lower , Burke

Tract 51059431002 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,238 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

51059431002 is a census tract in the Keene Mill Heights area of Burke, VA. It scores 3.8/10 for landlords. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 26% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Risk score
3.8
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6% Stable renters 18% Owners 76%
Tract context
Occupied units732
Renter share24.6%
SVI overall0.21
Poverty rate5.6%
Median income$129,605

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In Keene Mill Heights
Very High
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 10 tracts In Burke
Very High
Within county
47 th percentile
Rank, 47th percentileLowHigh
#147 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Moderate
Within state
45 th percentile
Rank, 45th percentileLowHigh
#1,203 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Burke and the region

Centroid at 38.7772, -77.2549 · click any tract to drill in

Why Keene Mill Heights scores 3.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Burke
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.6% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$2,574 rent vs county FMR
6.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Burke
4.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Burke
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Burke
3.6

How Keene Mill Heights compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Keene Mill Heights risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.83.8This tracttract 431002Burke: 4.04.0Burkeparent cityCounty: 4.34.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 21

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 22Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 3.27%Avg annual filing rate
  • 4.3%Peak (2011)
  • 6Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594310022011: 7 filings (4.27/100 renter HHs)2012: 3 filings (1.83/100 renter HHs)2013: 6 filings (3.66/100 renter HHs)2016: 6 filings (3.33/100 renter HHs)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Keene Mill Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Keene Mill Heights

Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1.4/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.4/10.

10% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 22 filings here across 4 tracked years.

Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.9/10. Average gross rent is $2,574, 11% below the Burke average.

The worst year on record was 2011, when 4.3% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 3.3% of renter households face a filing.

On the national scale it lands near the 38th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 25% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.9/10. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.

Poverty sits at 6%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. It tracks the Fairfax County average of 4.3 closely.

Annual rent works out to 24% of average household income of $129,605.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059431002

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059431002?

Census tract 51059431002 in the Keene Mill Heights neighborhood scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059431002?

Median gross rent is $2,574/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 26% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059431002?

5.6% of residents in tract 51059431002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,238.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059431002?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 21th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 26th, household 52th, minority 75th, housing 6th.
Q5

Is tract 51059431002 considered part of Keene Mill Heights?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059431002 fall within Keene Mill Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059431002?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 22 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059431002 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.27% of renter households, peaking at 4.3% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059431002 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059431002 compare to Burke overall?

Tract 51059431002 scores 3.8/10, right in line with the parent city of Burke at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Burke eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Burke

Top eight tracts in Burke ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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