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Neighborhood · Ranked #83,884 of 84,120 nationally

Keene Mill Heights Eviction Risk: Lower , Burke

Tract 51059432402 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 5,561 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

Census tract 51059432402 belongs to the Keene Mill Heights area of Burke, Virginia. It is home to 5,561 residents and scores 5.2/10, a moderate reading for landlords. That is riskier than roughly 44% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 33% of renter households, a high level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $3,501 a month while the average household earns $206,250 a year, roughly 20% of income at the averages. About 9% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 3% Stable renters 6% Owners 91%
Tract context
Occupied units1,765
Renter share9.4%
SVI overall0.04
Poverty rate1.6%
Median income$206,250

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 3 tracts In Keene Mill Heights
Moderate
Within parent city
11 th percentile
Rank, 11th percentileLowHigh
#9 of 10 tracts In Burke
Very Low
Within county
11 th percentile
Rank, 11th percentileLowHigh
#243 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Very Low
Within state
4 th percentile
Rank, 4th percentileLowHigh
#2,104 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Burke and the region

Centroid at 38.7630, -77.2676 · click any tract to drill in

Why Keene Mill Heights scores 1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Burke
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.6% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,501 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Burke
4.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Burke
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Burke
3.6

How Keene Mill Heights compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Keene Mill Heights risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.01.0This tracttract 432402Burke: 3.63.6Burkeparent cityCounty: 1.51.5Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 4

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 13Total filings over 3 yrs
  • 1.94%Avg annual filing rate
  • 3.2%Peak (2016)
  • 5Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594324022011: 4 filings (1.29/100 renter HHs)2012: 4 filings (1.29/100 renter HHs)2013: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)2016: 5 filings (3.23/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 25% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Keene Mill Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Keene Mill Heights

What moves this score most is supply constraint at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Burke eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 5.7% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 3.6% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 13 eviction filings here over 3 tracked years, with about 1.9% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 3.2% of renter households in 2016.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059432402

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059432402?

Census tract 51059432402 in the Keene Mill Heights neighborhood scores 1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059432402?

Median gross rent is $3,501/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 33% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059432402?

1.6% of residents in tract 51059432402 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,561.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059432402?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 4th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 11th, household 22th, minority 50th, housing 2th.
Q5

Is tract 51059432402 considered part of Keene Mill Heights?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059432402 fall within Keene Mill Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059432402?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 13 eviction filings across 3 validated years in tract 51059432402 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.94% of renter households, peaking at 3.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059432402 struggle to pay rent?

About 5.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059432402 compare to Burke overall?

Tract 51059432402 scores 1/10, lower than the parent city of Burke at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Burke eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Burke

Top eight tracts in Burke ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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