Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Fairfax Park Eviction Risk: Lower , West Springfield
Tract 51059431300 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,736 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Tract 51059431300 sits in the Fairfax Park area of Burke eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.4/10. It is home to 4,736 residents. The severe-burden share is 35%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4%
Stable renters 6%
Owners 90%
Tract context
Occupied units1,284
Renter share10.4%
SVI overall0.23
Poverty rate2.9%
Median income$186,667
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
12
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across West Springfield and the region
Centroid at 38.7675, -77.2436 · click any tract to drill in
Why Fairfax Park scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from West Springfield
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.9% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,349 rent vs county FMR
9.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from West Springfield
4.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from West Springfield
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from West Springfield
3.6
How Fairfax Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 23
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 27%Socioeconomic
- 58%Household composition
- 69%Racial/ethnic minority
- 7%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 14Total filings over 4 yrs
- 2.23%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.4%Peak (2016)
- 7Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 133% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Fairfax Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.1%Housing insecurity
- 4.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.1%Food insecurity
- 5.6%SNAP enrollment
- 4.9%Transit barriers
- 6.1%No health insurance
- 12.4%Frequent mental distress
- 23.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Fairfax Park
The voucher gap is 44.7%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. What pushes it up most is supply constraint at 9.5/10. Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10.
Food insecurity runs 8.1% against 17.8% nationally. SNAP participation runs 5.6% against 15.2% nationally. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.4/10.
Average gross rent is $3,349, 16% above the Burke average. Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.9 points. The filing record is not thin: 14 evictions over 4 years of observation.
The worst year on record was 2016, when 4.4% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 2.2% of renter households face a filing.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059431300
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059431300?
Census tract 51059431300 in the Fairfax Park neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059431300?
Median gross rent is $3,349/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 43% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059431300?
2.9% of residents in tract 51059431300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,736.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059431300?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 23th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 27th, household 58th, minority 69th, housing 7th.
Q5
Is tract 51059431300 considered part of Fairfax Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059431300 fall within Fairfax Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059431300?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 14 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059431300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.23% of renter households, peaking at 4.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059431300 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059431300 compare to West Springfield overall?
Tract 51059431300 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of West Springfield at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from West Springfield eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in West Springfield
Top eight tracts in West Springfield ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Keene Mill Heights
3.8
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Burke View
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Five Forks
3.5
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Burke Village
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Townes of Burke
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Townes of Burke
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Edgewater
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Keene Mill Heights
3.4
/ 10 · Low
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