Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #6,298 of 84,120 nationally
Dowden Terrace Eviction Risk: Elevated , Bailey's Crossroads
Tract 51059452801 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 5,706 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Census tract 51059452801 sits in the Dowden Terrace neighborhood of Bailey's Crossroads, Virginia. It has a population of 5,706 and an eviction-risk score of 6.8/10 (Elevated tier). 44% of renters here pay 30%+ of their household income on rent, with 29% severely cost-burdened (≥50%). Median gross rent is $2,177/month against a median household income of $92,563 — roughly 28% rent-to-income at the medians.
Risk score
6.8
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 30%
Owners 46%
Tract context
Occupied units2,311
Renter share53.4%
SVI overall0.81
Poverty rate24.2%
Median income$92,563
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
75
th percentile
High
Within county
100
th percentile
Very High
Within state
96
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bailey's Crossroads and the region
Centroid at 38.8406, -77.1276 · click any tract to drill in
Why Dowden Terrace scores 6.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
8.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
24.2% poverty · this tract
6.1
Supply constraint
$2,177 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
8.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
9.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
8.2
How Dowden Terrace compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 81
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 75%Socioeconomic
- 20%Household composition
- 77%Racial/ethnic minority
- 97%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 466Total filings over 4 yrs
- 7.49%Avg annual filing rate
- 10.6%Peak (2016)
- 163Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 30% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.8%Housing insecurity
- 8.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.9%Food insecurity
- 13.0%SNAP enrollment
- 8.7%Transit barriers
- 9.5%No health insurance
- 14.8%Frequent mental distress
- 28.4%Any disability
Frequently asked
About tract 51059452801
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059452801?
Census tract 51059452801 in the Dowden Terrace neighborhood scores 6.8/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059452801?
Median gross rent is $2,177/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059452801?
24.2% of residents in tract 51059452801 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,706.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059452801?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 81th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 75th, household 20th, minority 77th, housing 97th.
Q5
Is tract 51059452801 considered part of Dowden Terrace?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059452801 fall within Dowden Terrace (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059452801?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 466 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059452801 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.49% of renter households, peaking at 10.6% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059452801 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.8% also reported utility shutoff threats — a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059452801 compare to Bailey's Crossroads overall?
Tract 51059452801 scores 6.8/10 — higher than the parent city of Bailey's Crossroads at 6.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bailey's Crossroads eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bailey's Crossroads
Top eight tracts in Bailey's Crossroads ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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