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Neighborhood · Bailey's Crossroads, VA

Dowden Terrace Eviction Risk: Elevated

1 census tracts · pop 5,706 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 7.7/10 · range 7.7–7.7

Dowden Terrace maps to a single census tract in Bailey's Crossroads, VA and houses 5,706 people. That produces an Eviction Risk Score of 7.7/10, Elevated tier. What pushes the score up most is tenant-organizing strength at 9.4/10.

The severe-burden share is 29%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. 44% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, ahead of the Bailey's Crossroads rate of 34.7%. Running hot is rent-regulation exposure at 8.2/10.

On the high side is housing-court posture at 8.2/10. The poverty rate is 24%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Court records for this tract carry 466 eviction filings.

Filing activity peaked in 2016 at 10.6% of renter households. Average gross rent is $2,177, 8% above the Bailey's Crossroads average of $2,021. Among the 4 mapped neighborhoods of Bailey's Crossroads, it ranks #1 by risk, the upper third.

Judgments average 2.3% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.3/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. Annual rent works out to 28% of average household income of $92,563.

53% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

One tract means one number: 7.7/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.

Risk score
7.7
Elevated
1 tracts · population-weighted
Dowden Terrace vs Bailey's Crossroads How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
44.3% +28%
Bailey's Crossroads: 34.7%
Average gross rent
$2,177 +8%
Bailey's Crossroads: $2,021
Average HH income
$92,563 +10%
Bailey's Crossroads: $84,241
Poverty rate
24.2% +11%
Bailey's Crossroads: 21.7%
Renter share
53.4% +3%
Bailey's Crossroads: 52.0%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Dowden Terrace and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 1 tracts span score 7.7–7.7

Why Dowden Terrace scores 7.7

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts
3.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 7.1–7.1 across tracts
7.1
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 8.4–8.4 across tracts
8.4
Rent control risk
44% of income on rent · Range 8.2–8.2 across tracts
8.2
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.4–3.4 across tracts
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
53% renter households · Range 9.4–9.4 across tracts
9.4
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 8.2–8.2 across tracts
8.2
Economic stress
24.2% below poverty line · Range 6.1–6.1 across tracts
6.1
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 4.4–4.4 across tracts
4.4
Risk score comparison

Dowden Terrace vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Dowden Terrace score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Dowden Terrace: 7.77.7Dowden TerraceNeighborhoodParent city: 6.36.3Parent cityhost cityState: 4.34.3Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.15.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

1 tracts in Dowden Terrace

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
51059452801 7.7 5,706 44% $2,177
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 81

Pop-weighted across 1 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 75%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 20%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 77%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 97%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Dowden Terrace

Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 466Total filings (sum)
  • 7.49%Avg annual filing rate
  • 10.6%Peak year (2016)
  • 10.61%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Dowden Terrace

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Dowden Terrace

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Dowden Terrace?

Dowden Terrace scores 7.7/10 (Elevated tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Dowden Terrace compare to Bailey's Crossroads overall?

Dowden Terrace scores 1.4 points higher than Bailey's Crossroads overall (6.3/10). Renters spend 44% of income on rent vs 35% citywide. Average rent: $2,177 vs $2,021.
Q3

What is the average rent in Dowden Terrace?

Average gross rent in Dowden Terrace is $2,177/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Dowden Terrace residents are renters?

53% of Dowden Terrace households are renter-occupied (vs 52% in Bailey's Crossroads). The neighborhood has 5,706 residents.
Q5

Is Dowden Terrace a high social-vulnerability area?

Dowden Terrace sits in the 81st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

How safe is Dowden Terrace for landlords?

Dowden Terrace carries a elevated-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (7.7/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Bailey's Crossroads as a whole (6.3/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q7

What is the demographic breakdown of Dowden Terrace?

Dowden Terrace has 5,994 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (38.9%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (26.9%), Black (non-Hispanic) (22.4%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Dowden Terrace

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Bailey's Crossroads

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Dowden Terrace.

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