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Neighborhood · Bailey's Crossroads, VA

Dowden Terrace Eviction Risk: Elevated

1 census tracts · pop 5,706 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 6.8/10 · range 6.8–6.8

Dowden Terrace is a white-asian neighborhood in Bailey's Crossroads with 1 census tract and a population of 5,706 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 6.8/10 (Elevated tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 44% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 29% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Median gross rent of $2,177/month sits 8% higher than the Bailey's Crossroads citywide median ($2,021).

Risk score
6.8
Elevated
1 tracts · population-weighted
Dowden Terrace vs Bailey's Crossroads How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
44.3% +28%
Bailey's Crossroads: 34.7%
Average gross rent
$2,177 +8%
Bailey's Crossroads: $2,021
Average HH income
$92,563 +10%
Bailey's Crossroads: $84,241
Poverty rate
24.2% +11%
Bailey's Crossroads: 21.7%
Renter share
53.4% +3%
Bailey's Crossroads: 52.0%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Dowden Terrace and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 1 tracts span score 6.8–6.8

Why Dowden Terrace scores 6.8

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts
3.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 7.1–7.1 across tracts
7.1
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 8.4–8.4 across tracts
8.4
Rent control risk
44% of income on rent · Range 8.2–8.2 across tracts
8.2
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.4–3.4 across tracts
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
53% renter households · Range 9.4–9.4 across tracts
9.4
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 8.2–8.2 across tracts
8.2
Economic stress
24.2% below poverty line · Range 6.1–6.1 across tracts
6.1
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 4.4–4.4 across tracts
4.4
Risk score comparison

Dowden Terrace vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Dowden Terrace score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Dowden Terrace: 6.86.8Dowden TerraceNeighborhoodParent city: 6.46.4Parent cityhost cityState: 5.35.3Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.35.3U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

1 tracts in Dowden Terrace

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
51059452801 6.8 5,706 44% $2,177
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 81

Pop-weighted across 1 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 75%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 20%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 77%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 97%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Dowden Terrace

Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 466Total filings (sum)
  • 7.49%Avg annual filing rate
  • 10.6%Peak year (2016)
  • 10.61%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Dowden Terrace

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Dowden Terrace

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Dowden Terrace?

Dowden Terrace scores 6.8/10 (Elevated tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

Q2

How does Dowden Terrace compare to Bailey's Crossroads overall?

Dowden Terrace scores 0.4 points higher than Bailey's Crossroads overall (6.4/10). Renters spend 44% of income on rent vs 35% citywide. Median rent: $2,177 vs $2,021.

Q3

What is the average rent in Dowden Terrace?

Median gross rent in Dowden Terrace is $2,177/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.

Q4

What percentage of Dowden Terrace residents are renters?

53% of Dowden Terrace households are renter-occupied (vs 52% in Bailey's Crossroads). The neighborhood has 5,706 residents.

Q5

Is Dowden Terrace a high social-vulnerability area?

Dowden Terrace sits in the 81th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Q6

How safe is Dowden Terrace for landlords?

Dowden Terrace carries a elevated-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (6.8/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Bailey's Crossroads as a whole (6.4/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

Q7

What is the demographic breakdown of Dowden Terrace?

Dowden Terrace has 5,994 residents (White-Asian Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (38.9%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (26.9%), Black (non-Hispanic) (22.4%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Dowden Terrace

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Bailey's Crossroads

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Dowden Terrace.

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