1 census tracts · pop 5,706 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 7.7/10
· range 7.7–7.7
Dowden Terrace maps to a single census tract in Bailey's Crossroads, VA and houses 5,706 people. That produces an Eviction Risk Score of 7.7/10, Elevated tier. What pushes the score up most is tenant-organizing strength at 9.4/10.
The severe-burden share is 29%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. 44% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, ahead of the Bailey's Crossroads rate of 34.7%. Running hot is rent-regulation exposure at 8.2/10.
On the high side is housing-court posture at 8.2/10. The poverty rate is 24%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Court records for this tract carry 466 eviction filings.
Filing activity peaked in 2016 at 10.6% of renter households. Average gross rent is $2,177, 8% above the Bailey's Crossroads average of $2,021. Among the 4 mapped neighborhoods of Bailey's Crossroads, it ranks #1 by risk, the upper third.
Judgments average 2.3% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.3/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. Annual rent works out to 28% of average household income of $92,563.
53% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
One tract means one number: 7.7/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.
Risk score
7.7
Elevated
1 tracts · population-weighted
Dowden Terrace vs Bailey's CrossroadsHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority77%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport97%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Dowden Terrace
Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
466Total filings (sum)
7.49%Avg annual filing rate
10.6%Peak year (2016)
10.61%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Dowden Terrace
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
12.8%Housing insecurity
8.8%Utility shutoff threat
15.9%Food insecurity
13.0%SNAP enrollment
9.5%No health insurance
28.4%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Dowden Terrace
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Dowden Terrace?
Dowden Terrace scores 7.7/10 (Elevated tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Dowden Terrace compare to Bailey's Crossroads overall?
Dowden Terrace scores 1.4 points higher than Bailey's Crossroads overall (6.3/10). Renters spend 44% of income on rent vs 35% citywide. Average rent: $2,177 vs $2,021.
Q3
What is the average rent in Dowden Terrace?
Average gross rent in Dowden Terrace is $2,177/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Dowden Terrace residents are renters?
53% of Dowden Terrace households are renter-occupied (vs 52% in Bailey's Crossroads). The neighborhood has 5,706 residents.
Q5
Is Dowden Terrace a high social-vulnerability area?
Dowden Terrace sits in the 81st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
How safe is Dowden Terrace for landlords?
Dowden Terrace carries a elevated-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (7.7/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Bailey's Crossroads as a whole (6.3/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q7
What is the demographic breakdown of Dowden Terrace?
Dowden Terrace has 5,994 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (38.9%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (26.9%), Black (non-Hispanic) (22.4%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
