Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #9,433 of 84,120 nationally
Courtland Park Eviction Risk: Elevated , Bailey's Crossroads
Tract 51059451601 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,704 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
Census tract 51059451601 covers part of the Courtland Park area of Bailey's Crossroads, VA, and scores 7.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 6,704. Severe burden reaches 44%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
7.7
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 53%
Stable renters 36%
Owners 11%
Tract context
Occupied units1,744
Renter share88.5%
SVI overall0.94
Poverty rate31.7%
Median income$66,638
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
75
th percentile
High
Within county
99
th percentile
Very High
Within state
100
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bailey's Crossroads and the region
Centroid at 38.8502, -77.1390 · click any tract to drill in
Why Courtland Park scores 7.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
8.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
31.7% poverty · this tract
7.9
Supply constraint
$1,832 rent vs county FMR
2.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
8.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
9.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
8.2
How Courtland Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 94
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 97%Socioeconomic
- 67%Household composition
- 93%Racial/ethnic minority
- 85%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 638Total filings over 4 yrs
- 11.49%Avg annual filing rate
- 20.0%Peak (2011)
- 75Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 73% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Courtland Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 30.4%Housing insecurity
- 17.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 41.4%Food insecurity
- 32.1%SNAP enrollment
- 19.6%Transit barriers
- 37.7%No health insurance
- 19.2%Frequent mental distress
- 41.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Courtland Park
Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 60% of renters here are cost-burdened. Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 3.4 points. The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 9.4/10.
This is renter territory: 89% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. SNAP participation runs 32.1% against 15.2% nationally.
The poverty rate is 32%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Set annual rent against average income of $66,638 and the ratio lands at 33%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. Housing insecurity runs 30.4% against 14.2% nationally.
On the high side, local political climate reads 8.4/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.2/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 638 filings here across 4 tracked years.
Average gross rent is $1,832, 9% below the Bailey's Crossroads average.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059451601
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059451601?
Census tract 51059451601 in the Courtland Park neighborhood scores 7.7/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059451601?
Median gross rent is $1,832/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 60% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059451601?
31.7% of residents in tract 51059451601 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,704.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059451601?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 94th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 97th, household 67th, minority 93th, housing 85th.
Q5
Is tract 51059451601 considered part of Courtland Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059451601 fall within Courtland Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059451601?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 638 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059451601 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 11.49% of renter households, peaking at 20.0% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059451601 struggle to pay rent?
About 30.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 17.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059451601 compare to Bailey's Crossroads overall?
Tract 51059451601 scores 7.7/10, higher than the parent city of Bailey's Crossroads at 6.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bailey's Crossroads eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bailey's Crossroads
Top eight tracts in Bailey's Crossroads ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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