Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #53,267 of 84,120 nationally
Skyline Eviction Risk: Lower , Bailey's Crossroads
Tract 51059452802 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,869 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
With a score of 6.5/10, tract 51059452802 in Skyline in Bailey's Crossroads ranks in the Elevated tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 2,869 residents. That is riskier than about 86% of US census tracts.
About 74% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 12% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,149 monthly, set against $91,004 in average yearly household income, roughly 28% of income at the averages. About 18% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
3.3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 13%
Stable renters 5%
Owners 82%
Tract context
Occupied units1,643
Renter share17.8%
SVI overall0.62
Poverty rate8.6%
Median income$91,004
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
96
th percentile
Very High
Within state
60
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bailey's Crossroads and the region
Centroid at 38.8426, -77.1159 · click any tract to drill in
Why Skyline scores 3.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
8.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
8.6% poverty · this tract
2.2
Supply constraint
$2,149 rent vs county FMR
4.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
8.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
9.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
8.2
How Skyline compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 62
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 37%Socioeconomic
- 85%Household composition
- 74%Racial/ethnic minority
- 61%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 51Total filings over 4 yrs
- 2.26%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.8%Peak (2016)
- 17Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.7%Housing insecurity
- 5.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.0%Food insecurity
- 7.3%SNAP enrollment
- 5.8%Transit barriers
- 6.5%No health insurance
- 12.7%Frequent mental distress
- 27.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Skyline
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 9.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Bailey's Crossroads, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 51 eviction filings here over 4 tracked years, with about 2.3% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 3.8% of renter households in 2016.
The tract is Black and White and ranks around the 62nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059452802
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059452802?
Census tract 51059452802 in the Skyline neighborhood scores 3.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059452802?
Median gross rent is $2,149/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 74% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059452802?
8.6% of residents in tract 51059452802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,869.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059452802?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 62th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 37th, household 85th, minority 74th, housing 61th.
Q5
Is tract 51059452802 considered part of Skyline?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059452802 fall within Skyline (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059452802?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 51 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059452802 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.26% of renter households, peaking at 3.8% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059452802 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059452802 compare to Bailey's Crossroads overall?
Tract 51059452802 scores 3.3/10, lower than the parent city of Bailey's Crossroads at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bailey's Crossroads eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bailey's Crossroads
Top eight tracts in Bailey's Crossroads ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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