Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #9,433 of 84,120 nationally
Courtland Park Eviction Risk: Elevated , Bailey's Crossroads
Tract 51059452700 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 5,032 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Tract 51059452700 sits in the Courtland Park area of Bailey's Crossroads, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 7.7/10. It is home to 5,032 residents. It sits 3.4 points above the Fairfax County average of 4.3.
Risk score
7.7
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 21%
Owners 55%
Tract context
Occupied units2,003
Renter share45.2%
SVI overall0.83
Poverty rate14.3%
Median income$88,973
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
75
th percentile
High
Within county
100
th percentile
Very High
Within state
100
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bailey's Crossroads and the region
Centroid at 38.8455, -77.1356 · click any tract to drill in
Why Courtland Park scores 7.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
8.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
14.3% poverty · this tract
3.6
Supply constraint
$1,638 rent vs county FMR
2.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
8.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
9.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
8.2
How Courtland Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 83
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 79%Socioeconomic
- 57%Household composition
- 83%Racial/ethnic minority
- 84%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 102Total filings over 4 yrs
- 2.41%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.5%Peak (2011)
- 25Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Courtland Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 15.3%Housing insecurity
- 9.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 18.7%Food insecurity
- 14.3%SNAP enrollment
- 9.5%Transit barriers
- 13.3%No health insurance
- 14.8%Frequent mental distress
- 28.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Courtland Park
The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.4/10. Cost burden runs 53% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County.
Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.4/10. On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.2/10. At $1,638 a month, rents run 19% under what the rest of Bailey's Crossroads commands.
The filing record is not thin: 102 evictions over 4 years of observation. Filings peaked in 2011 at 2.5% of renter households.
In a typical year about 2.4% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #9,433 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.5/10. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 3.5 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.
Annual rent works out to 22% of average household income of $88,973.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059452700
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059452700?
Census tract 51059452700 in the Courtland Park neighborhood scores 7.7/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059452700?
Median gross rent is $1,638/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059452700?
14.3% of residents in tract 51059452700 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,032.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059452700?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 83th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 79th, household 57th, minority 83th, housing 84th.
Q5
Is tract 51059452700 considered part of Courtland Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059452700 fall within Courtland Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059452700?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 102 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059452700 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.41% of renter households, peaking at 2.5% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059452700 struggle to pay rent?
About 15.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059452700 compare to Bailey's Crossroads overall?
Tract 51059452700 scores 7.7/10, higher than the parent city of Bailey's Crossroads at 6.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bailey's Crossroads eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bailey's Crossroads
Top eight tracts in Bailey's Crossroads ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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