Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #28,095 of 84,120 nationally
Penderbrook Eviction Risk: Moderate , Fair Oaks
Tract 51059481702 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,705 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Tract 51059481702 sits in the Penderbrook area of Fair Oaks eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.3/10. Population here is 4,705. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.5/10.
Risk score
5.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8%
Stable renters 13%
Owners 79%
Tract context
Occupied units1,968
Renter share21.4%
SVI overall0.15
Poverty rate3.1%
Median income$134,429
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
17
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
78
th percentile
High
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Fair Oaks and the region
Centroid at 38.8713, -77.3543 · click any tract to drill in
Why Penderbrook scores 5.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Fair Oaks
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,913 rent vs county FMR
3.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Fair Oaks
6.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Fair Oaks
9.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Fair Oaks
4.7
How Penderbrook compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 15
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 9%Socioeconomic
- 30%Household composition
- 73%Racial/ethnic minority
- 17%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 37Total filings over 4 yrs
- 1.54%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.0%Peak (2016)
- 12Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 50% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.9%Housing insecurity
- 4.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.5%Food insecurity
- 4.6%SNAP enrollment
- 4.6%Transit barriers
- 5.6%No health insurance
- 12.3%Frequent mental distress
- 19.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Penderbrook
Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10. Disability prevalence runs 19.3% against 31.5% nationally.
Severe burden reaches 11%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. It sits 1.0 points above the Fairfax County average of 4.3.
Average gross rent is $1,913, 16% below the Fair Oaks average. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.2/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 37 filings here across 4 tracked years.
Housing insecurity runs 6.9% against 14.2% nationally. Filings peaked in 2016 at 2.0% of renter households.
In a typical year about 1.5% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #28,095 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
At 21% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.3/10. Rent consumes only 17% of average household income of $134,429, an unusually wide affordability cushion.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059481702
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059481702?
Census tract 51059481702 in the Penderbrook neighborhood scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059481702?
Median gross rent is $1,913/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 38% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059481702?
3.1% of residents in tract 51059481702 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,705.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059481702?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 15th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 9th, household 30th, minority 73th, housing 17th.
Q5
Is tract 51059481702 considered part of Penderbrook?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059481702 fall within Penderbrook (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059481702?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 37 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059481702 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.54% of renter households, peaking at 2.0% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059481702 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059481702 compare to Fair Oaks overall?
Tract 51059481702 scores 5.3/10, lower than the parent city of Fair Oaks at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Fair Oaks eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Fair Oaks
Top eight tracts in Fair Oaks ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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