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Neighborhood · Ranked #69,776 of 84,120 nationally

Greens of Fair Lakes Eviction Risk: Lower , Greenbriar

Tract 51059491801 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,615 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Eviction risk in the Greens of Fair Lakes neighborhood of Greenbriar centers on tract 51059491801, which scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier) and is home to 2,615 residents. That is riskier than roughly 67% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

53% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 23% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,202 a month while the average household earns $105,655 a year, roughly 25% of income at the averages. About 41% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
2.3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 22% Stable renters 20% Owners 58%
Tract context
Occupied units1,221
Renter share41.4%
SVI overall0.49
Poverty rate13.4%
Median income$105,655

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 4 tracts In Greens of Fair Lakes
Very High
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In Greenbriar
Very High
Within county
91 th percentile
Rank, 91st percentileLowHigh
#27 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Very High
Within state
41 th percentile
Rank, 41st percentileLowHigh
#1,297 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Greenbriar and the region

Centroid at 38.8575, -77.3947 · click any tract to drill in

Why Greens of Fair Lakes scores 2.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Greenbriar
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
13.4% poverty · this tract
3.3
Supply constraint
$2,202 rent vs county FMR
4.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Greenbriar
3.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Greenbriar
7.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Greenbriar
3.5

How Greens of Fair Lakes compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Greens of Fair Lakes risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 2.32.3This tracttract 491801Greenbriar: 3.23.2Greenbriarparent cityCounty: 1.51.5Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 49

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 58Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 2.72%Avg annual filing rate
  • 3.7%Peak (2011)
  • 15Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594918012011: 19 filings (3.69/100 renter HHs)2012: 11 filings (2.14/100 renter HHs)2013: 13 filings (2.52/100 renter HHs)2016: 15 filings (2.54/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 21% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Greens of Fair Lakes. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Greens of Fair Lakes

The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 7.9/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Greenbriar, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is Asian and White and ranks around the 49th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 58 eviction filings here over 4 tracked years, with about 2.7% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 3.7% of renter households in 2011.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059491801

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491801?

Census tract 51059491801 in the Greens of Fair Lakes neighborhood scores 2.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059491801?

Median gross rent is $2,202/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491801?

13.4% of residents in tract 51059491801 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,615.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491801?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 49th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 43th, household 44th, minority 70th, housing 48th.
Q5

Is tract 51059491801 considered part of Greens of Fair Lakes?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491801 fall within Greens of Fair Lakes (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059491801?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 58 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059491801 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.72% of renter households, peaking at 3.7% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059491801 struggle to pay rent?

About 9.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059491801 compare to Greenbriar overall?

Tract 51059491801 scores 2.3/10, lower than the parent city of Greenbriar at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Greenbriar; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Greenbriar

Top eight tracts in Greenbriar ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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