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Neighborhood · Ranked #82,639 of 84,120 nationally

Greens of Fair Lakes Eviction Risk: Lower , Greenbriar

Tract 51059491502 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,768 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

Landlord eviction risk in census tract 51059491502 (the Greens of Fair Lakes neighborhood of Greenbriar, Virginia) comes in at 4.3/10, the Moderate tier. On the national scale it ranks #69,922 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 0% of renter households, a modest level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average household income is about $250,001 a year. About 2% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
1.1
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 0% Stable renters 2% Owners 98%
Tract context
Occupied units2,038
Renter share1.7%
SVI overall0.03
Poverty rate4.2%
Median income$250,001

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
33 th percentile
Rank, 33rd percentileLowHigh
#3 of 4 tracts In Greens of Fair Lakes
Low
Within parent city
20 th percentile
Rank, 20th percentileLowHigh
#5 of 6 tracts In Greenbriar
Low
Within county
15 th percentile
Rank, 15th percentileLowHigh
#234 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Very Low
Within state
9 th percentile
Rank, 9th percentileLowHigh
#1,987 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Greenbriar and the region

Centroid at 38.8641, -77.4116 · click any tract to drill in

Why Greens of Fair Lakes scores 1.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Greenbriar
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.2% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
tract rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Greenbriar
5.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Greenbriar
4.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Greenbriar
4.7

How Greens of Fair Lakes compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Greens of Fair Lakes risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.11.1This tracttract 491502Greenbriar: 3.23.2Greenbriarparent cityCounty: 1.51.5Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 3

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 11Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 7.66%Avg annual filing rate
  • 10.6%Peak (2016)
  • 5Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594915022011: 1 filings (3.33/100 renter HHs)2012: 2 filings (6.67/100 renter HHs)2013: 3 filings (10.00/100 renter HHs)2016: 5 filings (10.64/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 400% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Greens of Fair Lakes. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Greens of Fair Lakes

The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 5.8/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Greenbriar, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and below the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 4.7% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 2.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is White and Asian and ranks around the 3rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059491502

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491502?

Census tract 51059491502 in the Greens of Fair Lakes neighborhood scores 1.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491502?

4.2% of residents in tract 51059491502 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,768.
Q3

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491502?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 3th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 5th, household 19th, minority 61th, housing 2th.
Q4

Is tract 51059491502 considered part of Greens of Fair Lakes?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491502 fall within Greens of Fair Lakes (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q5

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059491502?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 11 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059491502 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.66% of renter households, peaking at 10.6% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6

What share of households in tract 51059491502 struggle to pay rent?

About 4.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 2.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51059491502 compare to Greenbriar overall?

Tract 51059491502 scores 1.1/10, lower than the parent city of Greenbriar at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Greenbriar; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Greenbriar

Top eight tracts in Greenbriar ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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