Within neighborhood
67
th percentile
Elevated
Neighborhood · Ranked #81,634 of 84,120 nationally
Greens of Fair Lakes Eviction Risk: Lower , Greenbriar
Tract 51059491803 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,673 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
The Moderate-tier score of $1/10 for census tract 51059491803 reflects conditions in Greens of Fair Lakes in Greenbriar, Virginia. That is riskier than about 37% of US census tracts.
32% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a high level, and 12% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,155 monthly, set against $132,245 in average yearly household income, roughly 20% of income at the averages. About 39% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
1.2
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 12%
Stable renters 27%
Owners 61%
Tract context
Occupied units2,552
Renter share39.2%
SVI overall0.41
Poverty rate4.9%
Median income$132,245
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
44
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
12
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Greenbriar and the region
Centroid at 38.8742, -77.3984 · click any tract to drill in
Why Greens of Fair Lakes scores 1.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Greenbriar
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.9% poverty · this tract
1.2
Supply constraint
$2,155 rent vs county FMR
4.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Greenbriar
4.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Greenbriar
7.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Greenbriar
3.6
How Greens of Fair Lakes compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 41
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 19%Socioeconomic
- 45%Household composition
- 64%Racial/ethnic minority
- 64%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 202Total filings over 4 yrs
- 6.62%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.5%Peak (2012)
- 43Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Greens of Fair Lakes. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.7%Housing insecurity
- 4.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.0%Food insecurity
- 5.7%SNAP enrollment
- 5.2%Transit barriers
- 6.9%No health insurance
- 12.7%Frequent mental distress
- 22.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Greens of Fair Lakes
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 7.2/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Greenbriar, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 7.7% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.5% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 202 eviction filings here over 4 tracked years, with about 6.6% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 7.5% of renter households in 2012.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059491803
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491803?
Census tract 51059491803 in the Greens of Fair Lakes neighborhood scores 1.2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059491803?
Median gross rent is $2,155/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 32% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491803?
4.9% of residents in tract 51059491803 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,673.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491803?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 41th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 19th, household 45th, minority 64th, housing 64th.
Q5
Is tract 51059491803 considered part of Greens of Fair Lakes?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491803 fall within Greens of Fair Lakes (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059491803?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 202 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059491803 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.62% of renter households, peaking at 7.5% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059491803 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059491803 compare to Greenbriar overall?
Tract 51059491803 scores 1.2/10, lower than the parent city of Greenbriar at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Greenbriar; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Greenbriar
Top eight tracts in Greenbriar ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related
Explore the geography around tract 51059491803
Parent city ↑
Greenbriar
3.2 / 10
Parent county ↑
Fairfax County
Parent state ↑
Virginia
Sibling tract →
Greens of Fair Lakes
1.1 / 10
Sibling tract →
Greens of Fair Lakes
1.1 / 10
Sibling tract →
Greens of Fair Lakes
2.3 / 10
Methodology
How the score is built
Interactive map
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