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Neighborhood · Ranked #82,639 of 84,120 nationally

Greens of Fair Lakes Eviction Risk: Lower , Greenbriar

Tract 51059491802 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,068 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

The Greens of Fair Lakes neighborhood of Greenbriar anchors census tract 51059491802, which lands at 4.8/10 on landlord eviction risk. It lands near the 30th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 24% of renter households, a moderate level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,357 monthly, set against $149,977 in average yearly household income, roughly 19% of income at the averages. About 15% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
1.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4% Stable renters 11% Owners 85%
Tract context
Occupied units1,099
Renter share14.9%
SVI overall0.07
Poverty rate3.1%
Median income$149,977

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 4 tracts In Greens of Fair Lakes
Very Low
Within parent city
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Greenbriar
Very Low
Within county
34 th percentile
Rank, 34th percentileLowHigh
#181 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Low
Within state
9 th percentile
Rank, 9th percentileLowHigh
#1,987 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Greenbriar and the region

Centroid at 38.8672, -77.3963 · click any tract to drill in

Why Greens of Fair Lakes scores 1.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Greenbriar
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,357 rent vs county FMR
5.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Greenbriar
4.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Greenbriar
7.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Greenbriar
3.6

How Greens of Fair Lakes compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Greens of Fair Lakes risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.11.1This tracttract 491802Greenbriar: 3.23.2Greenbriarparent cityCounty: 1.51.5Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 7

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 26Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 2.56%Avg annual filing rate
  • 3.8%Peak (2011)
  • 8Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594918022011: 11 filings (3.82/100 renter HHs)2012: 5 filings (1.74/100 renter HHs)2013: 2 filings (0.69/100 renter HHs)2016: 8 filings (3.98/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 27% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Greens of Fair Lakes. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Greens of Fair Lakes

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 7.2/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Greenbriar, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and below the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 7.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is White and Asian and ranks around the 7th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059491802

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491802?

Census tract 51059491802 in the Greens of Fair Lakes neighborhood scores 1.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059491802?

Median gross rent is $2,357/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 24% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491802?

3.1% of residents in tract 51059491802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,068.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491802?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 7th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 2th, household 8th, minority 62th, housing 24th.
Q5

Is tract 51059491802 considered part of Greens of Fair Lakes?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491802 fall within Greens of Fair Lakes (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059491802?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 26 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059491802 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.56% of renter households, peaking at 3.8% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059491802 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059491802 compare to Greenbriar overall?

Tract 51059491802 scores 1.1/10, lower than the parent city of Greenbriar at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Greenbriar; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Greenbriar

Top eight tracts in Greenbriar ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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