Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Greens of Fair Lakes Eviction Risk: Lower , Greenbriar
Tract 51059491802 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,068 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
51059491802 is a census tract in the Greens of Fair Lakes area of Greenbriar, VA. It scores 3.4/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,068 residents. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 24% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4%
Stable renters 11%
Owners 85%
Tract context
Occupied units1,099
Renter share14.9%
SVI overall0.07
Poverty rate3.1%
Median income$149,977
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
22
th percentile
Low
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Greenbriar and the region
Centroid at 38.8672, -77.3963 · click any tract to drill in
Why Greens of Fair Lakes scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Greenbriar
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,357 rent vs county FMR
5.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Greenbriar
4.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Greenbriar
7.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Greenbriar
3.6
How Greens of Fair Lakes compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 7
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 2%Socioeconomic
- 8%Household composition
- 62%Racial/ethnic minority
- 24%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 26Total filings over 4 yrs
- 2.56%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.8%Peak (2011)
- 8Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 27% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Greens of Fair Lakes. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.4%Housing insecurity
- 4.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.2%Food insecurity
- 5.1%SNAP enrollment
- 4.9%Transit barriers
- 6.3%No health insurance
- 12.7%Frequent mental distress
- 21.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Greens of Fair Lakes
The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10. SNAP participation runs 5.1% against 15.2% nationally.
Running hot, local political climate reads 7.2/10. Food insecurity runs 8.2% against 17.8% nationally. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.8/10.
It sits 0.9 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3. The filing record is not thin: 26 evictions over 4 years of observation.
The worst year on record was 2011, when 3.8% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 2.6% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 29% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Only 15% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. Social vulnerability reads 1.6/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059491802
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491802?
Census tract 51059491802 in the Greens of Fair Lakes neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059491802?
Median gross rent is $2,357/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 24% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491802?
3.1% of residents in tract 51059491802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,068.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491802?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 7th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 2th, household 8th, minority 62th, housing 24th.
Q5
Is tract 51059491802 considered part of Greens of Fair Lakes?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491802 fall within Greens of Fair Lakes (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059491802?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 26 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059491802 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.56% of renter households, peaking at 3.8% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059491802 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059491802 compare to Greenbriar overall?
Tract 51059491802 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Greenbriar at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Greenbriar; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Greenbriar
Top eight tracts in Greenbriar ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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