Neighborhood · Ranked #79,124 of 84,120 nationally

Gaines Mill Eviction Risk: Lower , Mechanicsville

Tract 51085321300 · Hanover County, VA · pop 6,734 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

Census tract 51085321300 covers the Gaines Mill area of Mechanicsville, home to 6,734 residents. For landlords it grades $1/10, a moderate reading. That is riskier than roughly 37% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

9% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a modest level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,027 a month against an average household income of $116,528 a year, roughly 21% of income at the averages. About 6% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

1.5

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 1% Stable renters 6% Owners 93%

Tract context

Occupied units2,515

Renter share6.2%

SVI overall0.02

Poverty rate4.2%

Median income$116,528

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Mechanicsville and the region

Centroid at 37.5928, -77.2930 · click any tract to drill in

Why Gaines Mill scores 1.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Mechanicsville

8.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

3.7

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

4.2% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$2,027 rent vs county FMR

6.8

Rent control risk

Inherited from Mechanicsville

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.3

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Mechanicsville

5.1

Housing court bias

Inherited from Mechanicsville

5.4

How Gaines Mill compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 2

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

7%Socioeconomic
12%Household composition
34%Racial/ethnic minority
3%Housing & transportation

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

8.1%Housing insecurity
5.1%Utility-shutoff threat
9.0%Food insecurity
6.9%SNAP enrollment
5.5%Transit barriers
6.4%No health insurance
15.4%Frequent mental distress
28.8%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Gaines Mill

The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 7.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Mechanicsville eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Hanover County average of 5.2 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 2nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

In CDC survey modeling, about 8.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51085321300

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51085321300?

Census tract 51085321300 in the Gaines Mill neighborhood scores 1.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51085321300?

Median gross rent is $2,027/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 9% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51085321300?

4.2% of residents in tract 51085321300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,734.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51085321300?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 2th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 7th, household 12th, minority 34th, housing 3th.

Is tract 51085321300 considered part of Gaines Mill?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51085321300 fall within Gaines Mill (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51085321300 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51085321300 compare to Mechanicsville overall?

Tract 51085321300 scores 1.5/10, lower than the parent city of Mechanicsville at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mechanicsville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Mechanicsville

Top eight tracts in Mechanicsville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.