Neighborhood · Mechanicsville, VA

Gaines Mill Eviction Risk: Lower

1 census tracts · pop 6,734 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 1.5/10 · range 1.5–1.5

Gaines Mill is a white (non-hispanic) neighborhood in Mechanicsville with 1 census tract and a population of 6,734 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 1.5/10 (Lower tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 9% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 0% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $2,027/month sits 18% higher than the Mechanicsville citywide average ($1,724).

Risk score

1.5

Lower

1 tracts · population-weighted

Gaines Mill vs Mechanicsville How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

9.0% -70%

Mechanicsville: 29.6%

Average gross rent

$2,027 +18%

Mechanicsville: $1,724

Average HH income

$116,528 +19%

Mechanicsville: $97,569

Poverty rate

4.2% -21%

Mechanicsville: 5.4%

Renter share

6.2% -75%

Mechanicsville: 24.5%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Gaines Mill and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 1 tracts span score 1.5–1.5

Why Gaines Mill scores 1.5

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts

3.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 3.7–3.7 across tracts

3.7

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 8.6–8.6 across tracts

8.6

Rent control risk

9% of income on rent · Range 7.5–7.5 across tracts

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.3–3.3 across tracts

3.3

Tenant organizing strength

6% renter households · Range 5.1–5.1 across tracts

5.1

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 5.4–5.4 across tracts

5.4

Economic stress

4.2% below poverty line · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts

1.0

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 6.8–6.8 across tracts

6.8

Risk score comparison

Gaines Mill vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Census tracts

1 tracts in Gaines Mill

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
51085321300	1.5	6,734	9%	$2,027

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 2

Pop-weighted across 1 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 7%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 13%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 34%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 3%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Gaines Mill

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

8.1%Housing insecurity
5.1%Utility shutoff threat
9.0%Food insecurity
6.9%SNAP enrollment
6.4%No health insurance
28.8%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Gaines Mill

What is the eviction-risk score for Gaines Mill?

Gaines Mill scores 1.5/10 (Lower tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Gaines Mill compare to Mechanicsville overall?

Gaines Mill scores 2.0 points lower than Mechanicsville overall (3.5/10). Renters spend 9% of income on rent vs 30% citywide. Average rent: $2,027 vs $1,724.

What is the average rent in Gaines Mill?

Average gross rent in Gaines Mill is $2,027/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 9% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Gaines Mill residents are renters?

6% of Gaines Mill households are renter-occupied (vs 24% in Mechanicsville). The neighborhood has 6,734 residents.

Is Gaines Mill a high social-vulnerability area?

Gaines Mill sits in the 2nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (low vulnerability). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

How safe is Gaines Mill for landlords?

Gaines Mill carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (1.5/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Mechanicsville as a whole (3.5/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Gaines Mill?

Gaines Mill has 6,678 residents (White (non-Hispanic) Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (77.3%), Black (non-Hispanic) (9.6%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (5.5%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Gaines Mill

2.5 Sledd Run 2 tracts · pop 8,949

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Mechanicsville

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Gaines Mill.

1.3 Avondale 1 tracts · pop 6,385 1.7 Sharon Park 1 tracts · pop 2,767 1.7 Cherrydale 1 tracts · pop 2,747 1.3 Pine Hill 1 tracts · pop 4,680 2.4 Sledd Run 2 tracts · pop 8,949 2.6 Hanover Grove 1 tracts · pop 3,609

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