Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
Fairlawn Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate , Highland Springs
Tract 51087201204 · Henrico County, VA · pop 3,531 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
With a score of 5.4/10, tract 51087201204 in the Fairlawn Heights area of Highland Springs, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,531 residents. 41% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17%
Stable renters 13%
Owners 70%
Tract context
Occupied units1,542
Renter share30.4%
SVI overall0.59
Poverty rate27.2%
Median income$52,163
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
81
th percentile
High
Within state
86
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Highland Springs and the region
Centroid at 37.5509, -77.3258 · click any tract to drill in
Why Fairlawn Heights scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Highland Springs
6.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.5
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
27.2% poverty · this tract
6.8
Supply constraint
$1,306 rent vs county FMR
2.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Highland Springs
6.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Highland Springs
7.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Highland Springs
6.7
How Fairlawn Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 59
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 75%Socioeconomic
- 51%Household composition
- 69%Racial/ethnic minority
- 28%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 19.8%Housing insecurity
- 14.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 24.0%Food insecurity
- 23.7%SNAP enrollment
- 12.6%Transit barriers
- 11.1%No health insurance
- 19.5%Frequent mental distress
- 38.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Fairlawn Heights
What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.7/10. The poverty rate is 27%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Cost burden runs 56% here against 47.8% across Henrico County.
Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.9/10. It sits 1.1 points above the Henrico County average of 4.3. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.6/10.
SNAP participation runs 23.7% against 15.2% nationally. On the national scale it lands near the 70th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.4/10. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter.
Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $1,306, close to the Highland Springs average.
Annual rent works out to 30% of average household income of $52,163.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51087201204
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087201204?
Census tract 51087201204 in the Fairlawn Heights neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51087201204?
Median gross rent is $1,306/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51087201204?
27.2% of residents in tract 51087201204 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,531.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51087201204?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 59th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 75th, household 51th, minority 69th, housing 28th.
Q5
Is tract 51087201204 considered part of Fairlawn Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087201204 fall within Fairlawn Heights (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51087201204 struggle to pay rent?
About 19.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51087201204 compare to Highland Springs overall?
Tract 51087201204 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Highland Springs at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Highland Springs; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Highland Springs
Top eight tracts in Highland Springs ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related