Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #20,889 of 84,120 nationally
Fairlawn Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate , Highland Springs
Tract 51087201204 · Henrico County, VA · pop 3,531 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
Landlord eviction risk in census tract 51087201204 (Fairlawn Heights in Highland Springs, Virginia) comes in at 6.9/10, the Elevated tier. That is riskier than about 93% of US census tracts.
56% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 41% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,306 a month while the average household earns $52,163 a year, roughly 30% of income at the averages. About 30% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
5.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17%
Stable renters 13%
Owners 70%
Tract context
Occupied units1,542
Renter share30.4%
SVI overall0.59
Poverty rate27.2%
Median income$52,163
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
99
th percentile
Very High
Within state
92
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Highland Springs and the region
Centroid at 37.5509, -77.3258 · click any tract to drill in
Why Fairlawn Heights scores 5.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Highland Springs
6.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.5
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
27.2% poverty · this tract
6.8
Supply constraint
$1,306 rent vs county FMR
2.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Highland Springs
6.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Highland Springs
7.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Highland Springs
6.7
How Fairlawn Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 59
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 75%Socioeconomic
- 51%Household composition
- 69%Racial/ethnic minority
- 28%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 19.8%Housing insecurity
- 14.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 24.0%Food insecurity
- 23.7%SNAP enrollment
- 12.6%Transit barriers
- 11.1%No health insurance
- 19.5%Frequent mental distress
- 38.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Fairlawn Heights
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 7.9/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Highland Springs, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Henrico County average of 6.1 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 19.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 14.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is Black and White and ranks around the 59th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51087201204
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087201204?
Census tract 51087201204 in the Fairlawn Heights neighborhood scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51087201204?
Median gross rent is $1,306/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51087201204?
27.2% of residents in tract 51087201204 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,531.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51087201204?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 59th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 75th, household 51th, minority 69th, housing 28th.
Q5
Is tract 51087201204 considered part of Fairlawn Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087201204 fall within Fairlawn Heights (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51087201204 struggle to pay rent?
About 19.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51087201204 compare to Highland Springs overall?
Tract 51087201204 scores 5.3/10, higher than the parent city of Highland Springs at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Highland Springs; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Highland Springs
Top eight tracts in Highland Springs ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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