Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Summerfield Eviction Risk: Lower , Brambleton
Tract 51107611902 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 6,202 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
51107611902 is a census tract in the Summerfield area of Loudoun Valley Estates, VA. It scores 3.4/10 for landlords. Population here is 6,202. The voucher gap is 42.6%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 3%
Stable renters 4%
Owners 93%
Tract context
Occupied units1,913
Renter share6.7%
SVI overall0.03
Poverty rate1.2%
Median income$250,001
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
5
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Brambleton and the region
Centroid at 38.9790, -77.5170 · click any tract to drill in
Why Summerfield scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Brambleton
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.2% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,300 rent vs county FMR
9.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Brambleton
2.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Brambleton
2.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Brambleton
2.1
How Summerfield compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 3
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 0%Socioeconomic
- 19%Household composition
- 72%Racial/ethnic minority
- 6%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Summerfield. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.7%Housing insecurity
- 3.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 6.5%Food insecurity
- 3.5%SNAP enrollment
- 3.9%Transit barriers
- 4.4%No health insurance
- 11.2%Frequent mental distress
- 15.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Summerfield
The dominant input is supply constraint at 9.3/10. Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 2/10.
Food insecurity runs 6.5% against 17.8% nationally. 9% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. It sits 0.7 points below the Loudoun County average of 4.1.
Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. On the national scale it lands near the 29th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 7% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.3/10. Against average income of $250,001, annual rent is just 16%.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 0.8 points cooler.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51107611902
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611902?
Census tract 51107611902 in the Summerfield neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107611902?
Median gross rent is $3,300/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611902?
1.2% of residents in tract 51107611902 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,202.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611902?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 3th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 0th, household 19th, minority 72th, housing 6th.
Q5
Is tract 51107611902 considered part of Summerfield?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611902 fall within Summerfield (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51107611902 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51107611902 compare to Brambleton overall?
Tract 51107611902 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Brambleton at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Brambleton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Brambleton
Top eight tracts in Brambleton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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