Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #20,506 of 84,120 nationally
Marumsco Village Eviction Risk: Moderate , Woodbridge
Tract 51153900301 · Prince William County, VA · pop 3,494 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
Census tract 51153900301 covers part of the Marumsco Village area of Occoquan, VA, and scores 5.8/10 on landlord eviction risk. 32% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
5.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15%
Stable renters 16%
Owners 69%
Tract context
Occupied units1,538
Renter share31.5%
SVI overall0.60
Poverty rate20.5%
Median income$104,583
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
88
th percentile
High
Within state
92
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Woodbridge and the region
Centroid at 38.6771, -77.2589 · click any tract to drill in
Why Marumsco Village scores 5.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Woodbridge
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
20.5% poverty · this tract
5.1
Supply constraint
$1,948 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Woodbridge
4.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Woodbridge
8.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Woodbridge
3.5
How Marumsco Village compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 60
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 72%Socioeconomic
- 57%Household composition
- 70%Racial/ethnic minority
- 29%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Marumsco Village. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.9%Housing insecurity
- 9.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.6%Food insecurity
- 13.6%SNAP enrollment
- 9.0%Transit barriers
- 10.8%No health insurance
- 17.0%Frequent mental distress
- 31.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Marumsco Village
The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. It sits 1.7 points above the Prince William County average of 4.1.
On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.2/10. The poverty rate is 20%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.
Running hot, local political climate reads 7.4/10. Against Prince William County at 43.3%, about half of renters here are cost-burdened. That is riskier than roughly 76% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.4/10. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.6 points hotter. Average gross rent is $1,948, close to the Occoquan average.
Annual rent works out to 22% of average household income of $104,583. 31% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153900301
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900301?
Census tract 51153900301 in the Marumsco Village neighborhood scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153900301?
Median gross rent is $1,948/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900301?
20.5% of residents in tract 51153900301 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,494.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900301?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 60th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 72th, household 57th, minority 70th, housing 29th.
Q5
Is tract 51153900301 considered part of Marumsco Village?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900301 fall within Marumsco Village (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51153900301 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51153900301 compare to Woodbridge overall?
Tract 51153900301 scores 5.8/10, right in line with the parent city of Woodbridge at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Woodbridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Woodbridge
Top eight tracts in Woodbridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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