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Neighborhood · Ranked #83,884 of 84,120 nationally

Southlake Eviction Risk: Lower , Montclair

Tract 51153901009 · Prince William County, VA · pop 7,436 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

Census tract 51153901009 runs through the Southlake neighborhood of Montclair. With 7,436 residents, it scores 4.7/10 for landlords. That is riskier than roughly 27% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 0% of renter households, a modest level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $3,173 monthly, set against $163,598 in average yearly household income, roughly 23% of income at the averages. About 2% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 0% Stable renters 2% Owners 98%
Tract context
Occupied units2,274
Renter share2.1%
SVI overall0.04
Poverty rate1.1%
Median income$163,598

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Southlake
Very Low
Within parent city
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 4 tracts In Montclair
Very Low
Within county
2 th percentile
Rank, 2nd percentileLowHigh
#91 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
Very Low
Within state
4 th percentile
Rank, 4th percentileLowHigh
#2,104 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Montclair and the region

Centroid at 38.6215, -77.3559 · click any tract to drill in

Why Southlake scores 1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Montclair
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,173 rent vs county FMR
8.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Montclair
5.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Montclair
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Montclair
4.2

How Southlake compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Southlake risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.01.0This tracttract 901009Montclair: 3.53.5Montclairparent cityCounty: 1.91.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 4

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 9Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 4.00%Avg annual filing rate
  • 4.0%Peak (2016)
  • 9Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Southlake. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Southlake

The heaviest input here is supply constraint at 8.7/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Montclair eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Prince William County average of 5.7 and below the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 4th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

In CDC survey modeling, about 8.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901009

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901009?

Census tract 51153901009 in the Southlake neighborhood scores 1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153901009?

Median gross rent is $3,173/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 0% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901009?

1.1% of residents in tract 51153901009 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,436.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901009?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 4th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 4th, household 42th, minority 62th, housing 1th.
Q5

Is tract 51153901009 considered part of Southlake?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901009 fall within Southlake (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901009?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 9 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901009 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.00% of renter households, peaking at 4.0% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51153901009 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51153901009 compare to Montclair overall?

Tract 51153901009 scores 1/10, lower than the parent city of Montclair at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Montclair eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Montclair

Top eight tracts in Montclair ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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