Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #65,414 of 84,120 nationally
Southlake Eviction Risk: Lower , Montclair
Tract 51153901010 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,906 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
51153901010 is a census tract in the Southlake area of Montclair, VA. It scores 3.1/10 for landlords. Population here is 4,906. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
Risk score
3.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 9%
Owners 84%
Tract context
Occupied units1,391
Renter share16.3%
SVI overall0.09
Poverty rate1.5%
Median income$179,111
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
24
th percentile
Low
Within state
20
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Montclair and the region
Centroid at 38.6123, -77.3554 · click any tract to drill in
Why Southlake scores 3.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Montclair
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.5% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,248 rent vs county FMR
4.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Montclair
5.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Montclair
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Montclair
4.2
How Southlake compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 9
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 18%Socioeconomic
- 37%Household composition
- 59%Racial/ethnic minority
- 2%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 3Total filings over 1 yrs
- 1.41%Avg annual filing rate
- 1.4%Peak (2016)
- 3Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Southlake. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.5%Housing insecurity
- 5.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.7%Food insecurity
- 6.2%SNAP enrollment
- 5.4%Transit barriers
- 6.4%No health insurance
- 14.2%Frequent mental distress
- 24.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Southlake
Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10. It sits 1.0 points below the Prince William County average of 4.1. Food insecurity runs 8.7% against 17.8% nationally.
SNAP participation runs 6.2% against 15.2% nationally. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 3 filings here across 1 tracked years.
On the softer side, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.9/10. The worst year on record was 2016, when 1.4% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 1.4% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 22nd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 16% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
Social vulnerability reads 1.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Rent consumes only 15% of average household income of $179,111, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.1 points cooler.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901010
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901010?
Census tract 51153901010 in the Southlake neighborhood scores 3.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901010?
Median gross rent is $2,248/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901010?
1.5% of residents in tract 51153901010 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,906.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901010?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 9th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 18th, household 37th, minority 59th, housing 2th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901010 considered part of Southlake?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901010 fall within Southlake (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901010?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 3 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901010 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.41% of renter households, peaking at 1.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901010 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901010 compare to Montclair overall?
Tract 51153901010 scores 3.1/10, lower than the parent city of Montclair at 3.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Montclair eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Montclair
Top eight tracts in Montclair ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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