Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #80,791 of 84,120 nationally
Cardinal Crest Eviction Risk: Lower , Montclair
Tract 51153901011 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,257 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Census tract 51153901011 covers the Cardinal Crest area of Montclair, home to 6,257 residents. For landlords it grades 5.3/10, a moderate reading. That is riskier than about 48% of US census tracts.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 28% of renter households, a moderate level, and 28% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,327 monthly, set against $137,656 in average yearly household income, roughly 20% of income at the averages. About 8% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
1.3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2%
Stable renters 5%
Owners 93%
Tract context
Occupied units1,921
Renter share7.5%
SVI overall0.15
Poverty rate6.5%
Median income$137,656
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
37
th percentile
Low
Within state
16
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Montclair and the region
Centroid at 38.6128, -77.3253 · click any tract to drill in
Why Cardinal Crest scores 1.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Montclair
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.5% poverty · this tract
1.6
Supply constraint
$2,327 rent vs county FMR
5.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Montclair
5.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Montclair
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Montclair
4.2
How Cardinal Crest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 15
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 22%Socioeconomic
- 37%Household composition
- 74%Racial/ethnic minority
- 4%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 10Total filings over 1 yrs
- 4.42%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.4%Peak (2016)
- 10Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.6%Housing insecurity
- 7.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.7%Food insecurity
- 9.1%SNAP enrollment
- 7.1%Transit barriers
- 8.6%No health insurance
- 15.4%Frequent mental distress
- 26.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Cardinal Crest
What moves this score most is rent-control risk at 5.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Montclair eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Prince William County average of 5.7 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 11.6% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 10 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 4.4% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 4.4% of renter households in 2016.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901011
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901011?
Census tract 51153901011 in the Cardinal Crest neighborhood scores 1.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901011?
Median gross rent is $2,327/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 28% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901011?
6.5% of residents in tract 51153901011 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,257.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901011?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 15th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 22th, household 37th, minority 74th, housing 4th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901011 considered part of Cardinal Crest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901011 fall within Cardinal Crest (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901011?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 10 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901011 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.42% of renter households, peaking at 4.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901011 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901011 compare to Montclair overall?
Tract 51153901011 scores 1.3/10, lower than the parent city of Montclair at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Montclair eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Montclair
Top eight tracts in Montclair ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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