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Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally

Cardinal Crest Eviction Risk: Lower , Montclair

Tract 51153901011 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,257 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

Census tract 51153901011 covers part of the Cardinal Crest area of Montclair, VA, and scores 3.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 6,257 residents. 28% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly below the Prince William County average of 43.3%.

Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2% Stable renters 5% Owners 93%
Tract context
Occupied units1,921
Renter share7.5%
SVI overall0.15
Poverty rate6.5%
Median income$137,656

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Cardinal Crest
Moderate
Within parent city
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 4 tracts In Montclair
Elevated
Within county
40 th percentile
Rank, 40th percentileLowHigh
#56 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
Moderate
Within state
31 th percentile
Rank, 31st percentileLowHigh
#1,505 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Montclair and the region

Centroid at 38.6128, -77.3253 · click any tract to drill in

Why Cardinal Crest scores 3.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Montclair
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.5% poverty · this tract
1.6
Supply constraint
$2,327 rent vs county FMR
5.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Montclair
5.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Montclair
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Montclair
4.2

How Cardinal Crest compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Cardinal Crest risk score vs. parent city / county / state3.4This tracttract 9010113.9Montclairparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 15

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 10Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 4.42%Avg annual filing rate
  • 4.4%Peak (2016)
  • 10Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Cardinal Crest

The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Severe burden reaches 28%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Running cool, economic stress reads 1.6/10.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 10 filings here across 1 tracked years. On the softer side, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.9/10.

It sits 0.7 points below the Prince William County average of 4.1. The worst year on record was 2016, when 4.4% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 4.4% of renter households face a filing.

Nationally it ranks #59,654 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Only 8% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 0.8 points cooler. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.

Average gross rent is $2,327, close to the Montclair average.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901011

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901011?

Census tract 51153901011 in the Cardinal Crest neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153901011?

Median gross rent is $2,327/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 28% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901011?

6.5% of residents in tract 51153901011 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,257.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901011?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 15th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 22th, household 37th, minority 74th, housing 4th.
Q5

Is tract 51153901011 considered part of Cardinal Crest?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901011 fall within Cardinal Crest (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901011?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 10 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901011 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.42% of renter households, peaking at 4.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51153901011 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51153901011 compare to Montclair overall?

Tract 51153901011 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Montclair at 3.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Montclair eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Montclair

Top eight tracts in Montclair ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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