Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #65,414 of 84,120 nationally
Southlake Eviction Risk: Lower , Montclair
Tract 51153901009 · Prince William County, VA · pop 7,436 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
Census tract 51153901009 covers part of the Southlake area of Montclair, VA, and scores 3.1/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 7,436. The voucher gap is 37.1%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
Risk score
3.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 0%
Stable renters 2%
Owners 98%
Tract context
Occupied units2,274
Renter share2.1%
SVI overall0.04
Poverty rate1.1%
Median income$163,598
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
33
th percentile
Low
Within county
20
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
20
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Montclair and the region
Centroid at 38.6215, -77.3559 · click any tract to drill in
Why Southlake scores 3.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Montclair
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,173 rent vs county FMR
8.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Montclair
5.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Montclair
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Montclair
4.2
How Southlake compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 4
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 4%Socioeconomic
- 42%Household composition
- 62%Racial/ethnic minority
- 1%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 9Total filings over 1 yrs
- 4.00%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.0%Peak (2016)
- 9Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Southlake. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.1%Housing insecurity
- 5.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.3%Food insecurity
- 5.8%SNAP enrollment
- 5.2%Transit barriers
- 6.3%No health insurance
- 13.8%Frequent mental distress
- 24.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Southlake
What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10. Average gross rent is $3,173, 34% above the Montclair average.
Running hot, supply constraint reads 8.7/10. Food insecurity runs 8.3% against 17.8% nationally. SNAP participation runs 5.8% against 15.2% nationally.
It sits 1.0 points below the Prince William County average of 4.1. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 9 filings here across 1 tracked years.
The worst year on record was 2016, when 4.0% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 4.0% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 22nd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Only 2% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 1.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901009
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901009?
Census tract 51153901009 in the Southlake neighborhood scores 3.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901009?
Median gross rent is $3,173/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 0% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901009?
1.1% of residents in tract 51153901009 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,436.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901009?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 4th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 4th, household 42th, minority 62th, housing 1th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901009 considered part of Southlake?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901009 fall within Southlake (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901009?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 9 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901009 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.00% of renter households, peaking at 4.0% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901009 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901009 compare to Montclair overall?
Tract 51153901009 scores 3.1/10, lower than the parent city of Montclair at 3.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Montclair eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Montclair
Top eight tracts in Montclair ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related