Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #61,558 of 84,120 nationally
Bradley Forest Eviction Risk: Lower , Buckhall
Tract 51153901304 · Prince William County, VA · pop 3,235 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
With a score of 3.3/10, tract 51153901304 in the Bradley Forest area of Buckhall, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,235. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
Risk score
3.3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 0%
Stable renters 7%
Owners 93%
Tract context
Occupied units986
Renter share7.3%
SVI overall0.32
Poverty rate4.1%
Median income$133,455
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
36
th percentile
Low
Within state
26
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Buckhall and the region
Centroid at 38.7039, -77.4819 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bradley Forest scores 3.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Buckhall
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,972 rent vs county FMR
3.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Buckhall
6.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Buckhall
3.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Buckhall
5.2
How Bradley Forest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 32
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 44%Socioeconomic
- 47%Household composition
- 53%Racial/ethnic minority
- 14%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 6Total filings over 1 yrs
- 8.70%Avg annual filing rate
- 8.7%Peak (2016)
- 6Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.5%Housing insecurity
- 5.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.3%Food insecurity
- 6.4%SNAP enrollment
- 5.6%Transit barriers
- 8.2%No health insurance
- 15.4%Frequent mental distress
- 28.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bradley Forest
Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10. Average gross rent is $1,972, 20% below the Buckhall average.
SNAP participation runs 6.4% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 9.3% against 17.8% nationally.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 6 filings here across 1 tracked years. It sits 0.8 points below the Prince William County average of 4.1. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 6.9/10.
The worst year on record was 2016, when 8.7% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 8.7% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 27% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 7% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
Social vulnerability reads 3.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Rent consumes only 18% of average household income of $133,455, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 0.9 points cooler.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901304
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901304?
Census tract 51153901304 in the Bradley Forest neighborhood scores 3.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901304?
Median gross rent is $1,972/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 0% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901304?
4.1% of residents in tract 51153901304 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,235.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901304?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 32th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 44th, household 47th, minority 53th, housing 14th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901304 considered part of Bradley Forest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901304 fall within Bradley Forest (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901304?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 6 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901304 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.70% of renter households, peaking at 8.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901304 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901304 compare to Buckhall overall?
Tract 51153901304 scores 3.3/10, lower than the parent city of Buckhall at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buckhall eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Buckhall
Top eight tracts in Buckhall ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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