Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #81,634 of 84,120 nationally
Bradley Forest Eviction Risk: Lower , Buckhall
Tract 51153901304 · Prince William County, VA · pop 3,235 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
The Moderate-tier score of 4.6/10 for census tract 51153901304 reflects conditions in the Bradley Forest neighborhood of Buckhall, Virginia. On the national scale it ranks #63,656 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
0% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a modest level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,972 monthly, set against $133,455 in average yearly household income, roughly 18% of income at the averages. About 7% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
1.2
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 0%
Stable renters 7%
Owners 93%
Tract context
Occupied units986
Renter share7.3%
SVI overall0.32
Poverty rate4.1%
Median income$133,455
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
23
th percentile
Low
Within state
12
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Buckhall and the region
Centroid at 38.7039, -77.4819 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bradley Forest scores 1.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Buckhall
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,972 rent vs county FMR
3.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Buckhall
6.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Buckhall
3.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Buckhall
5.2
How Bradley Forest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 32
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 44%Socioeconomic
- 47%Household composition
- 53%Racial/ethnic minority
- 14%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 6Total filings over 1 yrs
- 8.70%Avg annual filing rate
- 8.7%Peak (2016)
- 6Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.5%Housing insecurity
- 5.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.3%Food insecurity
- 6.4%SNAP enrollment
- 5.6%Transit barriers
- 8.2%No health insurance
- 15.4%Frequent mental distress
- 28.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bradley Forest
The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 6.9/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Buckhall eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Prince William County average of 5.7 and below the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 6 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 8.7% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 8.7% of renter households in 2016.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 32nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901304
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901304?
Census tract 51153901304 in the Bradley Forest neighborhood scores 1.2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901304?
Median gross rent is $1,972/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 0% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901304?
4.1% of residents in tract 51153901304 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,235.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901304?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 32th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 44th, household 47th, minority 53th, housing 14th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901304 considered part of Bradley Forest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901304 fall within Bradley Forest (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901304?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 6 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901304 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.70% of renter households, peaking at 8.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901304 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901304 compare to Buckhall overall?
Tract 51153901304 scores 1.2/10, lower than the parent city of Buckhall at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buckhall eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Buckhall
Top eight tracts in Buckhall ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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