Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #48,956 of 84,120 nationally
Coverstone Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bull Run
Tract 51153901407 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,385 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
Tract 51153901407 sits in the Coverstone area of Bull Run, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4/10. It is home to 4,385 residents. Severe burden reaches 33%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 25%
Stable renters 29%
Owners 46%
Tract context
Occupied units1,530
Renter share53.5%
SVI overall0.65
Poverty rate8.0%
Median income$106,094
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
61
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
53
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bull Run and the region
Centroid at 38.7946, -77.5231 · click any tract to drill in
Why Coverstone scores 4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bull Run
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
8.0% poverty · this tract
2.0
Supply constraint
$1,948 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bull Run
2.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bull Run
2.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bull Run
2.7
How Coverstone compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 65
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 74%Socioeconomic
- 54%Household composition
- 86%Racial/ethnic minority
- 34%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 117Total filings over 1 yrs
- 13.46%Avg annual filing rate
- 13.5%Peak (2016)
- 117Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 15.7%Housing insecurity
- 9.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 17.9%Food insecurity
- 12.6%SNAP enrollment
- 9.4%Transit barriers
- 14.8%No health insurance
- 16.6%Frequent mental distress
- 29.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Coverstone
What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 2/10.
Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 2.5/10. Court records carry 117 eviction filings across 1 observed years. The worst year on record was 2016, when 13.5% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 13.5% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 42% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.8/10.
Rent takes 30% or more of income for 47% of renters. It tracks the Prince William County average of 4.1 closely.
Average gross rent is $1,948, close to the Bull Run average. Annual rent works out to 22% of average household income of $106,094. 53% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901407
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901407?
Census tract 51153901407 in the Coverstone neighborhood scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901407?
Median gross rent is $1,948/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901407?
8.0% of residents in tract 51153901407 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,385.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901407?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 65th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 74th, household 54th, minority 86th, housing 34th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901407 considered part of Coverstone?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901407 fall within Coverstone (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901407?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 117 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901407 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 13.46% of renter households, peaking at 13.5% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901407 struggle to pay rent?
About 15.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901407 compare to Bull Run overall?
Tract 51153901407 scores 4/10, higher than the parent city of Bull Run at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bull Run; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bull Run
Top eight tracts in Bull Run ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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