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Neighborhood · Ranked #82,639 of 84,120 nationally

Avendale Eviction Risk: Lower , Linton Hall

Tract 51153901416 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,143 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

Tract 51153901416 covers the Avendale neighborhood of Linton Hall in Virginia. Home to 5,143 residents, it scores 4.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 24% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 10% of renter households, a modest level, and 10% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,900 monthly, set against $189,570 in average yearly household income, roughly 18% of income at the averages. About 9% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
1.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 1% Stable renters 8% Owners 91%
Tract context
Occupied units1,415
Renter share9.0%
SVI overall0.05
Poverty rate1.5%
Median income$189,570

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Avendale
Moderate
Within parent city
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#2 of 7 tracts In Linton Hall
High
Within county
7 th percentile
Rank, 7th percentileLowHigh
#87 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
Very Low
Within state
9 th percentile
Rank, 9th percentileLowHigh
#1,987 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Linton Hall and the region

Centroid at 38.7241, -77.5428 · click any tract to drill in

Why Avendale scores 1.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Linton Hall
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.5% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,900 rent vs county FMR
7.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Linton Hall
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Linton Hall
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Linton Hall
3.0

How Avendale compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Avendale risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.11.1This tracttract 901416Linton Hall: 3.43.4Linton Hallparent cityCounty: 1.91.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 5

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 11Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 8.53%Avg annual filing rate
  • 8.5%Peak (2016)
  • 11Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Avendale

The heaviest input here is supply constraint at 7.5/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Linton Hall eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Prince William County average of 5.7 and below the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 5th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

In CDC survey modeling, about 10.0% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901416

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901416?

Census tract 51153901416 in the Avendale neighborhood scores 1.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153901416?

Median gross rent is $2,900/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 10% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901416?

1.5% of residents in tract 51153901416 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,143.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901416?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 5th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 18th, household 11th, minority 54th, housing 3th.
Q5

Is tract 51153901416 considered part of Avendale?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901416 fall within Avendale (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901416?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 11 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901416 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.53% of renter households, peaking at 8.5% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51153901416 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51153901416 compare to Linton Hall overall?

Tract 51153901416 scores 1.1/10, lower than the parent city of Linton Hall at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Linton Hall eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Linton Hall

Top eight tracts in Linton Hall ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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