Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Avendale Eviction Risk: Lower , Linton Hall
Tract 51153901416 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,143 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Census tract 51153901416 covers part of the Avendale area of Linton Hall, VA, and scores 3/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 5,143. 10% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far below the Prince William County average of 43.3%.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 1%
Stable renters 8%
Owners 91%
Tract context
Occupied units1,415
Renter share9.0%
SVI overall0.05
Poverty rate1.5%
Median income$189,570
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
9
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
18
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Linton Hall and the region
Centroid at 38.7241, -77.5428 · click any tract to drill in
Why Avendale scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Linton Hall
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.5% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,900 rent vs county FMR
7.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Linton Hall
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Linton Hall
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Linton Hall
3.0
How Avendale compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 5
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 18%Socioeconomic
- 11%Household composition
- 54%Racial/ethnic minority
- 3%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 11Total filings over 1 yrs
- 8.53%Avg annual filing rate
- 8.5%Peak (2016)
- 11Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.0%Housing insecurity
- 6.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 11.1%Food insecurity
- 8.5%SNAP enrollment
- 6.7%Transit barriers
- 6.8%No health insurance
- 15.7%Frequent mental distress
- 25.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Avendale
What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10.
The voucher gap is 25.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Against the Prince William County average of 4.1, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.1 points.
On the high side, supply constraint reads 7.5/10. Severe burden reaches 10%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 11 filings here across 1 tracked years.
Average gross rent is $2,900, 13% above the Linton Hall average. Filings peaked in 2016 at 8.5% of renter households.
In a typical year about 8.5% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
At 9% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901416
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901416?
Census tract 51153901416 in the Avendale neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901416?
Median gross rent is $2,900/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 10% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901416?
1.5% of residents in tract 51153901416 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,143.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901416?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 5th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 18th, household 11th, minority 54th, housing 3th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901416 considered part of Avendale?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901416 fall within Avendale (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901416?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 11 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901416 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.53% of renter households, peaking at 8.5% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901416 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901416 compare to Linton Hall overall?
Tract 51153901416 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Linton Hall at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Linton Hall eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Linton Hall
Top eight tracts in Linton Hall ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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