Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #48,314 of 84,120 nationally
Zouave Hills Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bull Run
Tract 51153901418 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,256 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
Here is how census tract 51153901418, in the Zouave Hills area of Bull Run, looks to a landlord: a 5.1/10 eviction-risk score (Moderate tier) across a population of 4,256. On the national scale it ranks #50,081 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
About 34% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a high level, and 10% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,973 monthly, set against $101,579 in average yearly household income, roughly 23% of income at the averages. About 72% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
4.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 48%
Owners 28%
Tract context
Occupied units1,696
Renter share72.3%
SVI overall0.58
Poverty rate11.7%
Median income$101,579
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
12
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
26
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bull Run and the region
Centroid at 38.7898, -77.5488 · click any tract to drill in
Why Zouave Hills scores 4.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bull Run
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
11.7% poverty · this tract
2.9
Supply constraint
$1,973 rent vs county FMR
3.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bull Run
2.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bull Run
2.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bull Run
2.7
How Zouave Hills compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 58
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 54%Socioeconomic
- 56%Household composition
- 87%Racial/ethnic minority
- 41%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 16.1%Housing insecurity
- 9.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 19.1%Food insecurity
- 14.5%SNAP enrollment
- 10.1%Transit barriers
- 14.5%No health insurance
- 17.4%Frequent mental distress
- 30.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Zouave Hills
What moves this score most is supply constraint at 3.5/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Bull Run, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Prince William County average of 5.7 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 16.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 9.5% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is Hispanic or Latino and Black and ranks around the 58th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901418
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901418?
Census tract 51153901418 in the Zouave Hills neighborhood scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901418?
Median gross rent is $1,973/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 34% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901418?
11.7% of residents in tract 51153901418 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,256.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901418?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 58th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 54th, household 56th, minority 87th, housing 41th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901418 considered part of Zouave Hills?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901418 fall within Zouave Hills (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51153901418 struggle to pay rent?
About 16.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51153901418 compare to Bull Run overall?
Tract 51153901418 scores 4.2/10, lower than the parent city of Bull Run at 4.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bull Run; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bull Run
Top eight tracts in Bull Run ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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