Neighborhood · Ranked #30,697 of 84,120 nationally

TGM Bull Run Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 51153901419 · Prince William County, VA · pop 3,837 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

With a score of 6.1/10, tract 51153901419 in TGM Bull Run in Bull Run ranks in the Elevated tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 3,837 residents. That is riskier than about 76% of US census tracts.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 74% of renter households, a severe level, and 30% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,794 a month against an average household income of $63,327 a year, roughly 34% of income at the averages. Renters make up 65% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

5.5

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 48% Stable renters 17% Owners 35%

Tract context

Occupied units1,309

Renter share64.6%

SVI overall0.78

Poverty rate29.9%

Median income$63,327

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Bull Run and the region

Centroid at 38.7882, -77.5271 · click any tract to drill in

Why TGM Bull Run scores 5.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Bull Run

6.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

29.9% poverty · this tract

7.5

Supply constraint

$1,794 rent vs county FMR

2.8

Rent control risk

Inherited from Bull Run

2.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

2.6

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Bull Run

2.7

Housing court bias

Inherited from Bull Run

2.7

How TGM Bull Run compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 78

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

83%Socioeconomic
69%Household composition
89%Racial/ethnic minority
51%Housing & transportation

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

22.5%Housing insecurity
14.1%Utility-shutoff threat
29.3%Food insecurity
24.6%SNAP enrollment
14.4%Transit barriers
20.3%No health insurance
18.9%Frequent mental distress
36.3%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in TGM Bull Run

The score leans hardest on economic stress at 7.5/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Bull Run, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 22.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 14.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 78th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901419

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901419?

Census tract 51153901419 in the TGM Bull Run neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153901419?

Median gross rent is $1,794/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 74% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901419?

29.9% of residents in tract 51153901419 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,837.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901419?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 78th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 83th, household 69th, minority 89th, housing 51th.

Is tract 51153901419 considered part of TGM Bull Run?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901419 fall within TGM Bull Run (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51153901419 struggle to pay rent?

About 22.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153901419 compare to Bull Run overall?

Tract 51153901419 scores 5.5/10, higher than the parent city of Bull Run at 4.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bull Run; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Bull Run

Top eight tracts in Bull Run ranked by composite eviction-risk score.