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Neighborhood · Bull Run, VA

TGM Bull Run Eviction Risk: Moderate

1 census tracts · pop 3,837 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 5.5/10 · range 5.5-5.5

TGM Bull Run is a diverse neighborhood in Bull Run with 1 census tract and a population of 3,837 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 5.5/10 (Moderate tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 74% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 30% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $1,794/month sits 6% lower than the Bull Run citywide average ($1,907).

Risk score
5.5
Moderate
1 tracts · population-weighted
TGM Bull Run vs Bull Run How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
74.1% +46%
Bull Run: 50.6%
Average gross rent
$1,794 -6%
Bull Run: $1,907
Average HH income
$63,327 -29%
Bull Run: $88,675
Poverty rate
29.9% +95%
Bull Run: 15.3%
Renter share
64.6% +2%
Bull Run: 63.6%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across TGM Bull Run and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 1 tracts span score 5.5-5.5

Why TGM Bull Run scores 5.5

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 3.2-3.2 across tracts
3.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 6.4-6.4 across tracts
6.4
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 6.6-6.6 across tracts
6.6
Rent control risk
74% of income on rent · Range 2.5-2.5 across tracts
2.5
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.6-2.6 across tracts
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
65% renter households · Range 2.7-2.7 across tracts
2.7
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 2.7-2.7 across tracts
2.7
Economic stress
29.9% below poverty line · Range 7.5-7.5 across tracts
7.5
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 2.8-2.8 across tracts
2.8
Risk score comparison

TGM Bull Run vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0-10 scale).

TGM Bull Run score vs. parent city, state, U.S.TGM Bull Run: 5.55.5TGM Bull RunNeighborhoodParent city: 4.84.8Parent cityhost cityState: 5.15.1Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.25.2U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

1 tracts in TGM Bull Run

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
51153901419 5.5 3,837 74% $1,794
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 79

Pop-weighted across 1 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 83%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 69%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 89%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 51%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in TGM Bull Run

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About TGM Bull Run

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for TGM Bull Run?

TGM Bull Run scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

Q2

How does TGM Bull Run compare to Bull Run overall?

TGM Bull Run scores 0.7 points higher than Bull Run overall (4.8/10). Renters spend 74% of income on rent vs 51% citywide. Average rent: $1,794 vs $1,907.

Q3

What is the average rent in TGM Bull Run?

Average gross rent in TGM Bull Run is $1,794/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 74% of renter households are cost-burdened.

Q4

What percentage of TGM Bull Run residents are renters?

65% of TGM Bull Run households are renter-occupied (vs 64% in Bull Run). The neighborhood has 3,837 residents.

Q5

Is TGM Bull Run a high social-vulnerability area?

TGM Bull Run sits in the 79th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Q6

How safe is TGM Bull Run for landlords?

TGM Bull Run carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (5.5/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Bull Run as a whole (4.8/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

Q7

What is the demographic breakdown of TGM Bull Run?

TGM Bull Run has 3,801 residents (Diverse Neighborhood). Top groups: Hispanic / Latino (53.2%), Black (non-Hispanic) (17.3%), White (non-Hispanic) (16.4%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near TGM Bull Run

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Bull Run

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to TGM Bull Run.

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