1 census tracts · pop 3,837 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 5/10
· range 5–5
TGM Bull Run maps to a single census tract in Bull Run, VA and houses 3,837 people. Scored across those inputs it reaches 5/10, placing it in the Moderate tier. Against a Bull Run baseline of 50.6%, 74% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line.
Severe burden reaches 30%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. Set annual rent against average household income of $63,327 and the ratio lands at 34%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.
The poverty rate is 30%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest. Pulling the other way is rent-regulation exposure, at 2.5/10.
On the high side is economic stress at 7.5/10. Food insecurity affects 29.3% of adults, 11.5 points above the national rate. On the softer side is eviction-process difficulty, at 2.6/10.
SNAP participation is 24.6% of households versus 15.2% nationally. Among the 4 mapped neighborhoods of Bull Run, it ranks #1 by risk, the upper third.
For a like-for-like read, Crestwood Village and Zouave Hills score within a fraction of it. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.1/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.
One tract means one number: 5/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
5
Moderate
1 tracts · population-weighted
TGM Bull Run vs Bull RunHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority89%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport51%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in TGM Bull Run
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
22.5%Housing insecurity
14.1%Utility shutoff threat
29.3%Food insecurity
24.6%SNAP enrollment
20.3%No health insurance
36.3%Any disability
Frequently asked
About TGM Bull Run
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for TGM Bull Run?
TGM Bull Run scores 5/10 (Moderate tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does TGM Bull Run compare to Bull Run overall?
TGM Bull Run scores 1.4 points higher than Bull Run overall (3.6/10). Renters spend 74% of income on rent vs 51% citywide. Average rent: $1,794 vs $1,907.
Q3
What is the average rent in TGM Bull Run?
Average gross rent in TGM Bull Run is $1,794/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 74% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of TGM Bull Run residents are renters?
65% of TGM Bull Run households are renter-occupied (vs 64% in Bull Run). The neighborhood has 3,837 residents.
Q5
Is TGM Bull Run a high social-vulnerability area?
TGM Bull Run sits in the 79th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
How safe is TGM Bull Run for landlords?
TGM Bull Run carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (5/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Bull Run as a whole (3.6/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q7
What is the demographic breakdown of TGM Bull Run?
TGM Bull Run has 3,801 residents. Top groups: Hispanic / Latino (53.2%), Black (non-Hispanic) (17.3%), White (non-Hispanic) (16.4%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
