Neighborhood · Ranked #25,671 of 84,120 nationally

Carolina Chase Eviction Risk: Moderate , Gainesville

Tract 51153901508 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,770 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

With a score of $1/10, tract 51153901508 in the Carolina Chase neighborhood of Gainesville ranks in the Elevated tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 5,770 residents. It lands near the 73rd percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

59% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 18% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,113 a month while the average household earns $137,500 a year, roughly 18% of income at the averages. About 28% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

5.9

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 17% Stable renters 11% Owners 72%

Tract context

Occupied units1,928

Renter share28.1%

SVI overall0.47

Poverty rate5.2%

Median income$137,500

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Gainesville and the region

Centroid at 38.8006, -77.6533 · click any tract to drill in

Why Carolina Chase scores 5.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Gainesville

6.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

5.2% poverty · this tract

1.3

Supply constraint

$2,113 rent vs county FMR

4.1

Rent control risk

Inherited from Gainesville

6.8

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.2

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Gainesville

3.9

Housing court bias

Inherited from Gainesville

4.8

How Carolina Chase compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 47

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

39%Socioeconomic
26%Household composition
70%Racial/ethnic minority
62%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

123Total filings over 1 yrs
26.39%Avg annual filing rate
26.4%Peak (2016)
123Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

11.3%Housing insecurity
7.1%Utility-shutoff threat
13.2%Food insecurity
9.7%SNAP enrollment
7.3%Transit barriers
8.5%No health insurance
15.8%Frequent mental distress
26.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Carolina Chase

What moves this score most is rent-control risk at 6.8/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Gainesville, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is White and Asian and ranks around the 47th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 11.3% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901508

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901508?

Census tract 51153901508 in the Carolina Chase neighborhood scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153901508?

Median gross rent is $2,113/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901508?

5.2% of residents in tract 51153901508 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,770.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901508?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 47th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 39th, household 26th, minority 70th, housing 62th.

Is tract 51153901508 considered part of Carolina Chase?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901508 fall within Carolina Chase (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901508?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 123 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901508 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 26.39% of renter households, peaking at 26.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51153901508 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153901508 compare to Gainesville overall?

Tract 51153901508 scores 5.9/10, higher than the parent city of Gainesville at 5.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Gainesville; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Gainesville

Top eight tracts in Gainesville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.