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Neighborhood · Gainesville, VA

Carolina Chase Eviction Risk: Lower

1 census tracts · pop 5,770 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3.2/10 · range 3.2–3.2

Carolina Chase maps to a single census tract in Gainesville, VA and houses 5,770 people. Scored across those inputs it reaches 3.2/10, placing it in the Lower tier. Cost burden runs 59% against 31.7% citywide, putting Carolina Chase 27.6% over its own city.

The main counterweight is economic stress, at 1.3/10. 18% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate.

The filing record is not thin: 123 evictions logged in this tract. Filing activity peaked in 2016 at 26.4% of renter households. At $2,113 a month, rents sit 7% under what the rest of Gainesville commands.

Among the 5 mapped neighborhoods of Gainesville, it ranks #2 by risk, the middle third. Judgments average 2.2% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. The closest comparables inside the same city are Waterfall Village and Crossroads Village.

Rent takes 18% of average household income, comfortably inside the 30% line and unusually low for a rental sub-market. Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually reflect a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

28% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

One tract means one number: 3.2/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.

Risk score
3.2
Lower
1 tracts · population-weighted
Carolina Chase vs Gainesville How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
59.3% +87%
Gainesville: 31.7%
Average gross rent
$2,113 -7%
Gainesville: $2,283
Average HH income
$137,500 -19%
Gainesville: $168,978
Poverty rate
5.2% +32%
Gainesville: 3.9%
Renter share
28.1% +71%
Gainesville: 16.5%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Carolina Chase and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 1 tracts span score 3.2–3.2

Why Carolina Chase scores 3.2

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts
3.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 6.4–6.4 across tracts
6.4
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 6.6–6.6 across tracts
6.6
Rent control risk
59% of income on rent · Range 6.8–6.8 across tracts
6.8
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
28% renter households · Range 3.9–3.9 across tracts
3.9
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 4.8–4.8 across tracts
4.8
Economic stress
5.2% below poverty line · Range 1.3–1.3 across tracts
1.3
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 4.1–4.1 across tracts
4.1
Risk score comparison

Carolina Chase vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Carolina Chase score vs. parent city, state, U.S.3.2Carolina ChaseNeighborhood3.8Parent cityhost city4.3Stateavg in state5.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

1 tracts in Carolina Chase

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
51153901508 3.2 5,770 59% $2,113
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 47

Pop-weighted across 1 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 39%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 26%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 70%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 62%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Carolina Chase

Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 123Total filings (sum)
  • 26.39%Avg annual filing rate
  • 26.4%Peak year (2016)
  • 26.39%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Carolina Chase

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Carolina Chase

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Carolina Chase?

Carolina Chase scores 3.2/10 (Lower tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Carolina Chase compare to Gainesville overall?

Carolina Chase scores 0.6 points lower than Gainesville overall (3.8/10). Renters spend 59% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $2,113 vs $2,283.
Q3

What is the average rent in Carolina Chase?

Average gross rent in Carolina Chase is $2,113/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Carolina Chase residents are renters?

28% of Carolina Chase households are renter-occupied (vs 16% in Gainesville). The neighborhood has 5,770 residents.
Q5

Is Carolina Chase a high social-vulnerability area?

Carolina Chase sits in the 47th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

How safe is Carolina Chase for landlords?

Carolina Chase carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3.2/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Gainesville as a whole (3.8/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.
Q7

What is the demographic breakdown of Carolina Chase?

Carolina Chase has 6,035 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (44.1%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (21.4%), Black (non-Hispanic) (17.6%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Carolina Chase

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Gainesville

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Carolina Chase.

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