Neighborhood · Gainesville, VA

Carolina Chase Eviction Risk: Moderate

1 census tracts · pop 5,770 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 5.9/10 · range 5.9-5.9

Carolina Chase is a white-asian neighborhood in Gainesville with 1 census tract and a population of 5,770 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 5.9/10 (Moderate tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 59% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 18% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $2,113/month sits 7% lower than the Gainesville citywide average ($2,283).

Risk score

5.9

Moderate

1 tracts · population-weighted

Carolina Chase vs Gainesville How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

59.3% +87%

Gainesville: 31.7%

Average gross rent

$2,113 -7%

Gainesville: $2,283

Average HH income

$137,500 -19%

Gainesville: $168,978

Poverty rate

5.2% +32%

Gainesville: 3.9%

Renter share

28.1% +71%

Gainesville: 16.5%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Carolina Chase and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 1 tracts span score 5.9-5.9

Why Carolina Chase scores 5.9

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 3.2-3.2 across tracts

3.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 6.4-6.4 across tracts

6.4

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 6.6-6.6 across tracts

6.6

Rent control risk

59% of income on rent · Range 6.8-6.8 across tracts

6.8

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.2-3.2 across tracts

3.2

Tenant organizing strength

28% renter households · Range 3.9-3.9 across tracts

3.9

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 4.8-4.8 across tracts

4.8

Economic stress

5.2% below poverty line · Range 1.3-1.3 across tracts

1.3

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 4.1-4.1 across tracts

4.1

Risk score comparison

Carolina Chase vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0-10 scale).

Census tracts

1 tracts in Carolina Chase

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
51153901508	5.9	5,770	59%	$2,113

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 47

Pop-weighted across 1 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 39%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 26%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 70%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 62%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Carolina Chase

Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

123Total filings (sum)
26.39%Avg annual filing rate
26.4%Peak year (2016)
26.39%Latest filed (2016)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Carolina Chase

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

11.3%Housing insecurity
7.1%Utility shutoff threat
13.2%Food insecurity
9.7%SNAP enrollment
8.5%No health insurance
26.6%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Carolina Chase

What is the eviction-risk score for Carolina Chase?

Carolina Chase scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Carolina Chase compare to Gainesville overall?

Carolina Chase scores 0.7 points higher than Gainesville overall (5.2/10). Renters spend 59% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $2,113 vs $2,283.

What is the average rent in Carolina Chase?

Average gross rent in Carolina Chase is $2,113/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Carolina Chase residents are renters?

28% of Carolina Chase households are renter-occupied (vs 16% in Gainesville). The neighborhood has 5,770 residents.

Is Carolina Chase a high social-vulnerability area?

Carolina Chase sits in the 47th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

How safe is Carolina Chase for landlords?

Carolina Chase carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (5.9/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Gainesville as a whole (5.2/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Carolina Chase?

Carolina Chase has 6,035 residents (White-Asian Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (44.1%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (21.4%), Black (non-Hispanic) (17.6%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Carolina Chase

5.4 Iron Gate 2 tracts · pop 9,000 4.7 Kerrydale 2 tracts · pop 12,361 4.7 Southlake 2 tracts · pop 12,342 5.5 The Heights 5 tracts · pop 26,016 6 Marumsco Hills 2 tracts · pop 8,902 6.3 Marumsco Village 3 tracts · pop 10,059

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Gainesville

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Carolina Chase.

5.2 Amberleigh Station 1 tracts · pop 5,416 4.9 Crossroads Village 1 tracts · pop 2,874 4.9 Waterfall Village 1 tracts · pop 7,727 4.9 Saranac 1 tracts · pop 6,030

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