Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #72,539 of 84,120 nationally
Lee Manor Eviction Risk: Lower , Manassas
Tract 51683910401 · Manassas city, VA · pop 7,214 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
Census tract 51683910401 covers the Lee Manor area of Manassas, home to 7,214 residents. For landlords it grades 5.3/10, a moderate reading. That is riskier than about 48% of US census tracts.
About 58% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 34% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,915 monthly, set against $102,500 in average yearly household income, roughly 22% of income at the averages. Renters make up 36% of occupied homes.
Risk score
2.1
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21%
Stable renters 15%
Owners 64%
Tract context
Occupied units2,178
Renter share35.8%
SVI overall0.63
Poverty rate9.5%
Median income$102,500
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
83
th percentile
High
Within county
83
th percentile
High
Within state
36
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Manassas and the region
Centroid at 38.7468, -77.4826 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lee Manor scores 2.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Manassas
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
9.5% poverty · this tract
2.4
Supply constraint
$1,915 rent vs county FMR
3.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Manassas
6.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Manassas
6.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Manassas
5.0
How Lee Manor compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 63
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 72%Socioeconomic
- 50%Household composition
- 82%Racial/ethnic minority
- 36%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Lee Manor. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 20.6%Housing insecurity
- 11.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 24.8%Food insecurity
- 17.8%SNAP enrollment
- 12.1%Transit barriers
- 22.4%No health insurance
- 18.5%Frequent mental distress
- 32.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lee Manor
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 6.1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Manassas eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Manassas City County average of 5.0 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 20.6% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 11.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is predominantly Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 63rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51683910401
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51683910401?
Census tract 51683910401 in the Lee Manor neighborhood scores 2.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51683910401?
Median gross rent is $1,915/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51683910401?
9.5% of residents in tract 51683910401 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,214.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51683910401?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 63th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 72th, household 50th, minority 82th, housing 36th.
Q5
Is tract 51683910401 considered part of Lee Manor?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51683910401 fall within Lee Manor (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51683910401 struggle to pay rent?
About 20.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51683910401 compare to Manassas overall?
Tract 51683910401 scores 2.1/10, lower than the parent city of Manassas at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Manassas eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Manassas
Top eight tracts in Manassas ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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