Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Lee Manor Eviction Risk: Moderate , Manassas
Tract 51683910401 · Manassas city, VA · pop 7,214 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
Census tract 51683910401 covers part of the Lee Manor area of Manassas, VA, and scores 4.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 7,214 residents. Severe burden reaches 34%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21%
Stable renters 15%
Owners 64%
Tract context
Occupied units2,178
Renter share35.8%
SVI overall0.63
Poverty rate9.5%
Median income$102,500
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
83
th percentile
High
Within county
83
th percentile
High
Within state
68
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Manassas and the region
Centroid at 38.7468, -77.4826 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lee Manor scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Manassas
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
9.5% poverty · this tract
2.4
Supply constraint
$1,915 rent vs county FMR
3.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Manassas
6.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Manassas
6.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Manassas
5.0
How Lee Manor compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 63
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 72%Socioeconomic
- 50%Household composition
- 82%Racial/ethnic minority
- 36%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Lee Manor. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 20.6%Housing insecurity
- 11.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 24.8%Food insecurity
- 17.8%SNAP enrollment
- 12.1%Transit barriers
- 22.4%No health insurance
- 18.5%Frequent mental distress
- 32.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lee Manor
58% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Manassas City average of 44.2%. The main counterweight is economic stress at 2.4/10. Adults with no health insurance runs 22.4% against 11.3% nationally.
Food insecurity runs 24.8% against 17.8% nationally. Nationally it ranks #39,308 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 6.7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
It tracks the Manassas City average of 4.0 closely. Average gross rent is $1,915, close to the Manassas average.
Annual rent works out to 22% of average household income of $102,500. 36% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51683910401
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51683910401?
Census tract 51683910401 in the Lee Manor neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51683910401?
Median gross rent is $1,915/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51683910401?
9.5% of residents in tract 51683910401 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,214.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51683910401?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 63th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 72th, household 50th, minority 82th, housing 36th.
Q5
Is tract 51683910401 considered part of Lee Manor?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51683910401 fall within Lee Manor (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51683910401 struggle to pay rent?
About 20.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51683910401 compare to Manassas overall?
Tract 51683910401 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Manassas at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Manassas eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Manassas
Top eight tracts in Manassas ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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